I. Potash Market: Tight Supply and Rising Prices Amid Strategic Standoff; Pre-Spring Ploughing Stockpiling Underway, Tight Circulation Becoming the Norm Recently, China’s domestic potash market has exhibited an unusual pattern of shrinking volumes alongside rising prices. Despite persistent market rumors suggesting policy coordination through long-term contract allocations and direct-supply releases, actual circulating volumes remain tight. Against this backdrop of reduced av

I. Russia: Port Expansion to Boost Mineral Fertilizer Exports by 8–12% Following the completion of the expansion at Russia’s Ust-Luga Port Favor terminal, the country’s export capacity for mineral fertilizers is expected to increase by 8–12%. The terminal is open to all fertilizer producers and offers a key advantage in handling efficiency compared with non-specialized ports. At present, Russia still lacks sufficient dedicated port infrastructure for mineral fertilizers. The

I. Executive Summary Entering late January 2026, the global fertilizer market is operating within a structural framework characterized by “high cost support + tight supply–demand balance.” In the Chinese market , phosphate fertilizers remain stable at elevated levels under the dual influence of supply-guarantee and price-stabilization policies together with persistently high raw-material costs. Potash prices are trending steadily upward, supported by low inventories and incre

From December 26, 2025 to January 9, 2026, China’s domestic fertilizer market operated around the core theme of “price stability and supply assurance for phosphate fertilizers.” On the raw material side, clear divergence was observed: phosphate rock remained largely stable, sulfur fluctuated at high levels, while sulfuric acid and synthetic ammonia stayed broadly stable. The potash market continued to operate under a tight supply–demand balance, with prices holding firm at el

Recently, the international fertilizer market has shown clear characteristics of concentrated demand release supported by government subsidy policies. Countries including India, Indonesia, and Nepal have actively advanced fertilizer tenders and procurement programs, while Pakistan recorded record-high fertilizer sales. Against this backdrop, China’s potash market concluded 2025 at elevated but stable levels, and entered 2026 with continued firmness. Potassium chloride prices

By late December, China’s fertilizer market has exhibited clear structural characteristics. On the raw material side, sulfur shows a pattern of domestic price pullback alongside high-level volatility in imported material, while phosphate rock, sulfuric acid, and synthetic ammonia remain broadly stable. The phosphate fertilizer market continues to implement policy-driven supply assurance and price stabilization, with prices remaining steady despite rising cost pressure. The po

From January to November 2025, China’s fertilizer imports and exports showed a clear pattern of rising export volumes and prices alongside a slight decline in imports. Toward year-end (mid-December), the market centered on three main themes: policy-driven price stability and supply assurance for phosphate fertilizers, supply–demand tug-of-war in the potash market, and policy regulation of upstream raw materials. Phosphate rock, sulfur, and sulfuric acid exhibited divergent tr

In early December 2025, China’s fertilizer market entered a critical phase characterized by across-the-board cost increases and a continued tight supply–demand balance. Rising prices of raw materials such as sulfur and sulfuric acid have pushed up costs for phosphate fertilizers and potassium sulfate. Meanwhile, the potash market remains firm at high levels, supported by concentrated supply and rigid winter stocking demand.In the international market, a pattern of strong dem

China’s Annual Contract Anchors Global Pricing While Supply–Demand Dynamics Shape the Market In November 2025, China finalized its 2026 annual potash import contract—an event that quickly became the central anchor for global potash pricing. The agreement not only halted the price slide in several emerging markets but also ignited China’s winter fertilizer stocking season. At the same time, rising sulfur and sulfuric acid prices pushed production costs sharply higher, placing

By the end of November 2025, China’s fertilizer market displayed clear structural characteristics: While the potash sector benefited from the newly signed annual import contract that set a cost floor, downstream demand remained weak, limiting actual transactions and keeping the market in a state of fragile stability. Conversely, upstream raw materials such as phosphate rock, sulfur, and sulfuric acid showed structural upward trends driven by tight supply or cost-push effects.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the global fertilizer industry is marked by distinct trends of “strategic upgrading, rising demand, and active trade.” The United States has, for the first time, included phosphate rock and potash in its Critical Minerals List, underscoring the national-security importance of fertilizer resources. Nutrien, the world’s largest fertilizer producer, forecasts continued growth in global potash demand in 2026, prompting adjustments in industry planni

I. Overview of China’s Fertilizer Import and Export (January–October 2025) (1) Exports: Significant Growth in Both Volume and Value From January to October 2025, China exported a total of 38.42 million tons of bulk fertilizers, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.3%. The total export value reached USD 11.55 billion, up 64.56% from the previous year. In October alone, exports remained exceptionally strong: 5.057 million tons, up 71.1% year-on-year, with an export value

I. Potash Fertilizer Market: Intensified Supply–Demand Game and Noticeable Regional/Product Divergence (1) Potassium Chloride Market: Mixed Trends and Narrowing Regional Price Gaps China’s potassium chloride market has shown a complex, fluctuating pattern with clear regional divergence in prices.Imported potassium chloride inventories are characterized by a “more in the north, less in the south” distribution. Local circulation is loose in some areas, but the overall supply–de

I. Comprehensive Overview of Fertilizer and Related Goods Imports and Exports in September 2025 (1) Export Market: Ammonium Sulfate Leads with Significant Overall Growth Since the beginning of 2025, China’s fertilizer export market has continued to expand, with total fertilizer exports from January to September reaching 33.363 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 45.4%. Among them, ammonium sulfate remained the dominant export variety, with cumulative exports reac

I. International Market Updates (1) Indonesia’s B50 Policy Marks a “Historic Turning Point” for Potash Demand Indonesia’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Arifin Tasrif, recently announced that biodiesel containing 50% palm oil-based biofuel (B50) has completed laboratory testing and is expected to be fully implemented in the second half of 2026, aiming to achieve zero diesel imports . This policy will reshape the palm oil industrial chain and trigger an explosive in

I. Import and Export Overview (January–September / September 2025) According to preliminary statistics from China Customs, in the first three quarters of 2025, China’s fertilizer trade showed a trend of “rising exports in both volume and value” and “declining imports in both volume and value.” Export growth in September alone was particularly significant. Detailed data are shown in the table below: Indicator Period Quantity (10,000 tons) Value (USD billion) YoY Change Other K

This week, China and overseas fertilizer markets continued the pattern of “cost support vs. weakening demand,” driven by the interplay of...

I. China’s Fertilizer Import & Export Data (Jan–Aug 2025) (1) Export Data: Key Product Breakdown Total Volume and Core Product Data...

In recent days, China’s fertilizer market has shown a clear pattern of “raw material divergence with cost support, and uneven fertilizer...

I. International Fertilizer Market Dynamics (1) Core Tender Events: Driving Global Price Trends India Concludes Urea Tender (September 2)...