International Fertilizer Market Snapshot: Shifting Supply–Demand Dynamics Across Regions as Exports and Consumption Adjust

I. Russia: Port Expansion to Boost Mineral Fertilizer Exports by 8–12%

Following the completion of the expansion at Russia’s Ust-Luga Port Favor terminal, the country’s export capacity for mineral fertilizers is expected to increase by 8–12%. The terminal is open to all fertilizer producers and offers a key advantage in handling efficiency compared with non-specialized ports. At present, Russia still lacks sufficient dedicated port infrastructure for mineral fertilizers.

The terminal currently focuses primarily on ammonia handling. By the end of 2025, ammonia throughput is projected to reach 560,000 tonnes, representing a 12% year-on-year increase, while the first fertilizer shipments are scheduled to commence in summer 2026.

From an infrastructure perspective, the terminal is capable of accommodating three bulk carriers simultaneously, with individual vessel capacities ranging from 5,000 to 114,000 tonnes. The combined single-loading capacity of the three berths exceeds 200,000 tonnes. Upon full commissioning, the first phase annual throughput is expected to reach 7–8 million tonnes, with capacity potentially increasing to 14 million tonnes in 2026, providing a solid logistical foundation for expanding Russian fertilizer exports.

II. Brazil: Fertilizer Imports Hit Record High; China Accounts for 26.1% with 37% Growth

(1) Total Imports and Consumption Pattern

Brazil’s fertilizer imports reached 45.5 million tonnes in 2025, setting a new historical record. This represents a 2.68% increase compared with 44.28 million tonnes in 2024. The primary driver was the country’s 2025/2026 agricultural season expansion and yield improvement strategy, with Mato Grosso, Paraná, and São Paulo remaining the core consumption regions, closely linked to strong soybean and corn production.

(2) Differentiation by Source Country

Brazil’s fertilizer import sources remain relatively concentrated. The Russian Federation ranked first with a 32.2% share, followed by China at 26.1%, then Canada (10.1%), the United States (7.1%), and Morocco (6.4%), among others.

In terms of incremental changes, Brazil’s fertilizer imports from China surged by 37% in 2025, while imports from Russia increased by 3.3%. In contrast, imports from the United States declined sharply by 18.7%, indicating continued optimization of Brazil’s import structure.

(3) Port Distribution and Substitution Trends

At the port level, Paranaguá Port remained Brazil’s largest fertilizer import hub, handling 10.89 million tonnes in 2025. Although volumes declined slightly by 1.36% year-on-year, the port still accounted for nearly one-quarter of national imports.

Imports through the Northern Arc ports increased from 7.5 million tonnes to 8.27 million tonnes, highlighting a trend toward import diversification. Meanwhile, Santos Port handled 8.42 million tonnes, down 5.18% year-on-year, reflecting a loss of market share.

On the consumption side, clear substitution trends have emerged. On the consumption side, a clear cost-driven substitution pattern has emerged. Faced with unfavorable grain-to-fertilizer price ratios, farmers are increasingly opting for more cost-effective products to control input costs. Ammonium sulfate is being used as a substitute for urea, not only because it provides both nitrogen and sulfur, but also due to ample supply from China and its relatively lower price.

Similarly, lower-concentration phosphates such as NPs, single superphosphate (SSP), and triple superphosphate (TSP) are increasingly replacing higher-priced monoammonium phosphate (MAP). This shift reflects farmers’ more refined cost–benefit assessment of nutrient inputs amid persistently high phosphate prices.

Taken together, these trends suggest that import demand for mid- to low-end, function-oriented fertilizers may prove more resilient under current market conditions.

III. India: Fertilizer Sales Up 3.8% from April–December; Urea Imports Surge 85.3%

According to provisional data from the Fertiliser Association of India (FAI), India’s fertilizer sales from April to December 2025 reached 31.16 million tonnes, representing a 3.8% year-on-year increase. This growth was primarily supported by a substantial expansion in imports, while domestic production declined slightly.

By product category:

• Urea sales reached 31.16 million tonnes, increasing year-on-year. Domestic production totaled 22.44 million tonnes, while imports surged by 85.3% to 8.0 million tonnes, effectively meeting peak crop nutrient demand.

• NP and NPK fertilizers (excluding DAP) saw production increase by 13.1% to 9.27 million tonnes, while imports jumped 121.8% to 3.29 million tonnes. Sales remained stable at 11.74 million tonnes.

• Diammonium phosphate (DAP) production declined by 3.9% to 3.03 million tonnes, while imports rose 45.7% to 5.95 million tonnes. Total sales stood at 8.0 million tonnes, slightly lower year-on-year.

• Potash fertilizer sales increased by 5.3% to 1.77 million tonnes, while imports declined by 22.4% to 2.14 million tonnes.

• Single superphosphate (SSP) production and sales rose by 10.3% and 13.1%, reaching 4.43 million tonnes and 4.71 million tonnes, respectively.

FAI officials noted that these figures demonstrate the industry’s capacity to secure nutrient supply through a combination of domestic production and targeted imports, while shifts in nutrient ratios reflect a gradual move toward more balanced fertilization practices.

IV. Vietnam: Multiple Tailwinds Support Moderate Growth in Urea Profits in 2026

Several institutions forecast moderate profit growth for Vietnamese fertilizer producers in 2026, driven by stable urea prices, declining oil prices, and tax policy adjustments that improve cost structures.

According to SSI, urea prices in 2026 are expected to remain broadly in line with 2025 levels. In 2025, urea prices rose 17% year-on-year, driven by higher European gas prices, supply disruptions in the Middle East, and influenced by changes in China’s export policies in the first half of the year. Price pressure eased after the third quarter as gas prices retreated.

On the cost side, Brent crude oil prices in 2026 are projected at USD 55–65 per barrel, representing a 6–20% year-on-year decline. From a tax perspective, fertilizer value-added tax was adjusted to 5% starting July 2025, allowing companies to claim input VAT credits. PetroVietnam Fertilizer and Ca Mau Fertilizer are expected to save approximately VND 400 billion and VND 200 billion, respectively—equivalent to 60% and 13% of their 2024 pre-tax profits, providing strong momentum for profit growth.

Meanwhile, MBS forecasts that Vietnam’s domestic fertilizer consumption will increase by 2% to 10.7 million tonnes in 2026, while urea exports are expected to remain at 1.8 million tonnes, accounting for 14.3% of domestic output. Companies with diversified product portfolios are expected to demonstrate greater earnings stability, while compound fertilizer producers show lower sensitivity to gas price volatility. In contrast, pure urea producers remain exposed to the risk of sharp gas price fluctuations.

V. Pakistan: Diverging Fertilizer Consumption in Q4; Urea Demand Jumps 26%

Despite disruptions caused by flooding, Pakistan’s fertilizer consumption showed structural growth in Q4 2025. Data from NFDC indicate that urea sales reached 2.5 million tonnes during the quarter, representing a 26% year-on-year increase and a 36% quarter-on-quarter rise, up sharply from 2.0 million tonnes in the same period of the previous year.

In contrast, DAP sales declined to 543,000 tonnes, down 21% year-on-year from 690,000 tonnes in the prior year.

Industry analysis suggests that the increase in consumption was driven by higher fertilizer application intensity and adjustments in crop structure rather than expansion of cultivated area. Even though fertilizer prices remained elevated, consumption continued to rise under policy measures aimed at stabilizing domestic demand. The surge in urea demand is also closely linked to Rabi season requirements and advance purchasing by distributors ahead of discount programs.

VI. Egypt: Chemical and Fertilizer Exports Exceed USD 9.4 Billion in 2025, Up 7.4%

In 2025, Egypt’s exports of chemical products and fertilizers reached USD 9.43 billion, representing a 7.4% year-on-year increase from USD 8.78 billion in 2024, an absolute rise of USD 650 million.

Growth was primarily driven by stronger demand for fertilizers, basic chemicals, and chemical intermediates, further reinforcing the sector’s position as a cornerstone of Egypt’s non-oil exports.

By destination, Italy ranked first with imports totaling USD 1.284 billion, followed by Türkiye (USD 1.103 billion) and Brazil (USD 652 million). Saudi Arabia, France, and Spain were also major export markets. Exports to the top ten importing countries totaled USD 5.62 billion, accounting for nearly 60% of total sector exports.

The Egyptian Chemical and Fertilizer Export Council stated that growth was supported by market diversification and improved competitiveness. Looking ahead to 2026, the council plans to focus on expanding into new markets across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, supporting exports by small and medium-sized enterprises, advancing green transformation initiatives, and further enhancing the sector’s contribution to national exports.

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.