Summary of China’s Fertilizer Market Dynamics in Late October 2025

I. Potash Fertilizer Market: Intensified Supply–Demand Game and Noticeable Regional/Product Divergence

(1) Potassium Chloride Market: Mixed Trends and Narrowing Regional Price Gaps

China’s potassium chloride market has shown a complex, fluctuating pattern with clear regional divergence in prices.Imported potassium chloride inventories are characterized by a “more in the north, less in the south” distribution. Local circulation is loose in some areas, but the overall supply–demand situation remains tight. In the Northeast, increased inquiries have slightly pushed up the low-end prices of large granular red MOP, while high-end prices in other regions have gradually flattened, narrowing the regional price gap.

At the port market, new shipments have been arriving continuously, though total November orders are expected to decline slightly. Traders are making minor price adjustments in line with port quotations. Lao MOP has seen a price surge due to a sudden spike in inquiries, and some traders have temporarily stopped offering, though actual transactions remain on a case-by-case basis, indicating that the price rebound is not yet stable. Imported 62% potassium chloride remains higher than the guideline price due to tight supply, keeping prices firm.

In the border trade market, the Russia–China November cross-border potassium chloride contract has been signed: the delivered price for standard MOP is USD 355/ton, and for granular MOP USD 357/ton, remaining flat compared with October.

Domestic potassium chloride producers are maintaining stable production and keeping prices unchanged. Most supplies are directly shipped to compound fertilizer plants, demonstrating strong resilience on the production side. This “produce-to-order” model effectively cushions the impact of market fluctuations on production operations.

(2) Potassium Sulfate Market: Cost Pressure and Low Operating Rates Keep Prices Stable

The potassium sulfate market remains generally stable. The recent pickup in potash inquiries has spread to the potassium sulfate sector, with higher inquiry volumes but actual transactions still mainly negotiated per order. The industry continues to face dual challenges of high costs and weak demand.

Mannheim-process potassium sulfate producers are suffering from cost inversion: 62% MOP feedstock is tight, and the surge in sulfur prices has worsened production losses. Most manufacturers operate at low rates with slow shipments.

Resource-based potassium sulfate producers maintain stable output and regular shipments, but downstream compound fertilizer factories remain cautious due to high inventories and weak purchasing interest. The intensified supply–demand standoff keeps prices steady without significant movement.

(3) Overall Market Situation: Increased Supply, Weak Demand, and Short-Term Volatility

The current core contradiction in China’s potash market lies in the tug-of-war between rising supply and insufficient demand activation. Domestic production remains stable while imported cargoes continue to arrive, increasing total supply. On the demand side, compound fertilizer plants’ rigid procurement and traders’ active inquiries form the base demand layer.In this structure, short-term price fluctuations depend mainly on three variables:

1. The transmission effect of raw MOP prices,

   
   

2. The movement of auxiliary materials such as sulfur, and sulfuric acid.

   
   

3. The purchasing rhythm of downstream compound fertilizer producers.

   
   

In the short term, the potash market is likely to maintain a “regional differentiation and product divergence” trend, with overall stable prices. Key factors to monitor include border-trade and China–Europe rail cargo arrivals, changes in downstream compound fertilizer demand, and international potash price transmission.

II. Phosphate Fertilizer Market: Soaring Raw Material Prices Push Up Costs and Force Adjustments

(1) Upstream Raw Materials: Stable Phosphate Rock with Strong Support, Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Leading the Rally

• Phosphate Rock: The Chinese phosphate rock market remains stable, with prices largely unchanged. Mines and traders mainly focus on fulfilling pending orders. Downstream fertilizer production has slightly declined, but demand for phosphate rock remains steady. Due to year-end mining suspensions in some parts of Hubei and a relatively late Spring Festival, enterprises are still building inventories.

• Regional supply differences: Northern mining areas are gradually resuming normal operations, easing earlier tightness, but limited downstream demand from nearby facilities keeps prices under pressure. In contrast, several mines in southern production hubs such as Hubei and Guizhou have reduced output or stopped taking new orders.

• Imported phosphate rock prices remain stable: Egypt (26–27%) USD 80–90/ton CIF, Jordan around USD 100/ton, and Baotang (28–30%) USD 95–98/ton CIF. From January–September, China imported 1.1788 million tons of phosphate rock, with 162,600 tons in September alone, at an average price of USD 87/ton.

• Sulfur: Market tightness has intensified, making prices more prone to rise than fall. China’s total port inventory stands at about 2.3 million tons, slightly down from the previous period, while resources at Yangtze River ports are tight.

On the international side, reduced output from Russia, Qatar, and Kazakhstan has tightened supply. Meanwhile, new downstream capacities are coming online, pushing up sulfur demand. As a result, the sulfur market is expected to remain firm, with prices likely to continue increasing.

• Sulfuric Acid: The market is experiencing a strong upward trend due to high sulfur feedstock prices and maintenance at several acid plants. The combination of high raw material costs and reduced supply is driving prices up further.

• Synthetic Ammonia: The market remains stable with limited fluctuations in the price center. In North China, after recent increases, buyers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and downstream users show resistance to high prices. Most transactions are based on immediate needs, with regional price gaps persisting due to transport limitations.

(2) Phosphate Fertilizer Market: Cost Pressure Triggers Price Rebound, but Inventory Reduction Remains Slow

The surge in sulfur and sulfuric acid prices has sharply pushed up production costs for phosphate fertilizer manufacturers. For producers relying heavily on external raw materials, current costs have exceeded selling prices, prompting many to suspend quotations.

However, the inventory reduction effect after price hikes has been limited — terminal markets remain cautious, and new order volumes are small. Some enterprises have tried to control costs by lowering phosphate rock feed grades or switching to self-produced sulfuric acid, which has allowed continued production. In contrast, diammonium phosphate (DAP) producers that rely entirely on purchased raw materials are facing extreme cost pressure, with production costs nearly matching selling prices.

III. Market Outlook

• Potash Fertilizer: The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with ongoing regional and product differentiation under the supply–demand tug-of-war. Key factors to watch include the progress of winter storage programs and arrival of imported cargoes.

• Phosphate Fertilizer: Supported by rising raw material costs, prices are likely to stay firm, though downstream demand remains weak. Future trends will depend on raw material price movements and the recovery pace of downstream procurement.

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.