International Fertilizer Market Weekly Report (January 19–26, 2026)

I. Executive Summary

Entering late January 2026, the global fertilizer market is operating within a structural framework characterized by “high cost support + tight supply–demand balance.”

In the Chinese market, phosphate fertilizers remain stable at elevated levels under the dual influence of supply-guarantee and price-stabilization policies together with persistently high raw-material costs. Potash prices are trending steadily upward, supported by low inventories and increased concentration of available supply. Sulfur has emerged as the most critical and influential cost driver across the entire fertilizer value chain.

In the international market, urea prices have moved onto a new high-price platform, phosphate fertilizer price benchmarks have shifted upward overall, and the medium-term supply–demand outlook for potash continues to improve. Meanwhile, fertilizer trading activity in Europe has declined sharply due to uncertainty surrounding carbon-related policies, intensifying market hesitation and negotiation frictions.

II. Overview of the Chinese Market

2.1 Phosphate Fertilizers: High-Level Fluctuation with Overall Stability

As of January 26, China’s phosphate fertilizer market continues to operate steadily at elevated price levels.

• Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP 10-45-0)

  The mainstream domestic market average remains within the range of CNY 3,870-3,900/ton, with limited short-term volatility.

  
  

• Diammonium Phosphate (DAP)

  Prices for 64% granular DAP are generally in the CNY 4,100–4,400/ton range, with noticeable regional price differentials.

Key influencing factors:

1. Supply-guarantee and price-stabilization policies forming an effective “price ceiling”

   Since December 2025, relevant authorities have continuously emphasized stable fertilizer supply during the spring farming season. Major phosphate producers have implemented coordinated price-stabilization and supply-guarantee measures, effectively curbing irrational price escalation expectations.

   
   

2. High raw-material costs establishing a firm “price floor”

   Prices of sulfur and phosphate rock remain at elevated levels, resulting in rigid production costs and limiting the downside risk for phosphate fertilizer prices.

   
   

3. Cautious purchasing behavior on the demand side

   As spring farming has not yet fully commenced, downstream compound fertilizer producers and distributors are mainly adopting phased, demand-driven procurement strategies, keeping overall transaction activity relatively steady.

   
   

Short-term outlook:Before the conclusion of the spring farming season, phosphate fertilizer prices are expected to remain within a range defined by a “policy ceiling + cost floor,” with market performance dominated by high-level consolidation.

2.2 Nitrogen Fertilizers: Stable Urea Prices, Global Market Enters a New Plateau

Domestic urea prices in China continue to fluctuate within a narrow range under cost support, with overall supply relatively ample but lacking strong downward momentum.

In the international market, influenced by geopolitical factors and export controls:

• Middle East granular urea FOB prices are holding at USD 420–430/ton;

• Brazil and Southeast Asia CFR prices are generally in the USD 430–440/ton range.

During the spring farming period, China’s urea export pace is expected to remain controlled, making it difficult for the global urea market’s tight supply situation to ease in the short term.

2.3 Potash: Tight Supply and an Upward Shift in the Price Center

(1) Chinese Market

• Domestic potash production has declined year-on-year, with a larger share of output supplied directly to downstream compound fertilizer producers;

• Port inventories remain at low levels, increasing the concentration of available spot resources;

• Limited tradable volumes continue to support a steady upward price trend.

(2) International Market

• No effective new global potash capacity additions occurred in 2025;

• Demand remains strong in major consuming countries such as China, India, and Brazil;

• New capacity releases are slow, and marginal production costs are relatively high;

• Against the backdrop of elevated nitrogen and phosphate prices, potash demonstrates a clear cost-performance advantage, supporting expectations of substitution demand.

Price comparison (CFR):

• Brazil & Southeast Asia: USD 360–380/ton

• Indonesia Q2 tender bids: USD 400–408/ton

Overall, global potash market fundamentals remain tight, providing solid medium-term price support.

III. Global Potash Supply–Demand Structure

(Supplementary analysis: supply pace and cost floor)

• No effective new global capacity in 2025;

• Limited new capacity additions in 2026–2027 (approximately 3 million tons in total);

• Marginal costs of new projects are generally above USD 250/ton FOB.

Price comparison (CFR):

• Brazil & Southeast Asia: USD 360–380/ton

• Indonesia Q2 tender bids: USD 400–408/ton

Trend assessment:Compared with nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, potash offers a more attractive cost-performance profile, and structural demand growth exceeding expectations remains possible over the next 2–3 years.

IV. Sulfur: The Core Risk Variable in the Fertilizer Value Chain

Sulfur has become the most influential upstream commodity in the fertilizer industry at the beginning of 2026.

• International sulfur FOB prices continue to rise, with market institutions projecting a potential increase to CNY 5,000–6,000/ton in 2026;

• Domestic sulfur prices are rising in tandem;

• New supply additions remain limited, while downstream demand (from phosphate fertilizers and new-energy materials) continues to expand, resulting in a pronounced supply–demand gap;

• Incremental demand: approximately 3.29 million tons per year.

The increase in sulfur prices has already been transmitted clearly to downstream products such as phosphate and compound fertilizers, making sulfur a key force underpinning fertilizer prices.

V. European Market: CBAM Uncertainty Triggers a “Trading Freeze”

• Since January 2026, there have been virtually no actual transactions for urea and phosphate fertilizers within the EU;

• Farmers and suppliers have been unable to reach consensus on pricing mechanisms;

• Significant uncertainty persists regarding whether CBAM measures will be applied retroactively.

Industry impact:

• The fertilizer sector has a high “carbon value intensity,” making it particularly sensitive to CBAM implementation;

• Producers struggle to assess whether, and how, additional costs can be passed downstream;

• Market confidence has been severely undermined, and fertilizer trade activity has nearly come to a standstill.

VI. Compound Fertilizers: Stalemate Between Rising Costs and Downstream Resistance

China’s compound fertilizer market is currently characterized by a clear standoff:

• Upstream raw-material prices (urea and sulfur) continue to rise, pushing production costs higher;

• 45% (15-15-15) chloride-based compound fertilizer: CNY 2,700/ton, up 17.6% year-on-year;

• Downstream growers show limited acceptance of high prices, with weak stocking intentions;

• Operating rates stand at approximately 45%, below last year’s level, and producers remain cautious on new quotations.

In some regions, price inversions have emerged, increasing inventory and cash-flow pressure on distributors.

End-users increasingly tend to:

• Reduce compound fertilizer usage;

• Shift toward customized blending using single-nutrient fertilizers.

VII. Market Outlook (1–2 Months)

• Spring farming demand is expected to be released gradually, providing baseline support to the market;

• Policy measures will continue to suppress excessive price volatility;

• Sulfur price trends remain the key variable affecting phosphate and compound fertilizers;

• Potash prices are expected to remain resilient, supported by low inventories and strong international demand.

Overall, the probability of sharp price increases or declines in the short term remains low. The market is more likely to continue operating within a high-level consolidation range.

Overall assessment

The global fertilizer market is entering a new phase defined by “high costs, high prices, low inventories, and low tolerance for disruption.” Price volatility is expected to increase, but the foundation for a sustained downward trend remains weak.