Panoramic Analysis of China’s Fertilizer Imports & Exports (Jan–Aug 2025) and Recent Market Fluctuations
- Fernando Chen
- Sep 22
- 5 min read
Updated: Sep 23
I. China’s Fertilizer Import & Export Data (Jan–Aug 2025)
(1) Export Data: Key Product Breakdown
Total Volume and Core Product Data
From January to August, cumulative fertilizer exports reached 27.92 million tons, up 41.7% YoY; export value was USD 8.033 billion, up 54.6% YoY, with value growth exceeding volume growth.
Nutrient equivalent: The pure NPK nutrients from urea, ammonium sulfate, and ammonium phosphates totaled 5.359 million tons.
Export Policies and International Demand Support
Policy framework: In 2025, MAP and DAP export quotas were implemented in two phases, with the total significantly reduced compared to last year. The second-phase quota (requires inspection before October 15) is now in effect. Export declarations for 9.5KG small-pack binary compound fertilizers have been suspended since early July.
International order support: Ethiopia’s tender of 540,000 tons of DAP is expected to award 300,000 tons to China. Bangladesh has purchased 116,500 tons of DAP and 20,000 tons of MAP, becoming the key driver of the international DAP market. India, due to long-term contracts securing raw materials, has slowed its procurement pace.
(2) Import Data: Signs of Supply Easing
Explicit Import Data
In August, China imported 840,000 tons of fertilizers, including 750,000 tons of potassium chloride and 80,000 tons of NPK compound fertilizers.
From January to August: Potassium chloride imports reached 7.56 million tons (down 6.3% YoY), NPK compound fertilizer imports were 760,000 tons (down 8.2% YoY), with total nutrient equivalent of 4.901 million tons.
Implicit Imports and Supply Trends
From January to August, grain and oilseed imports translated into an implicit nutrient equivalent of 5.363 million tons of fertilizers, down 17% YoY.
Turning point in potash imports: Imports remained sluggish from June to August (only 532,800 tons in July). However, in September, incremental supply from border trade, China–Europe freight trains, and seaborne cargoes began to rise. Port inventories have already exceeded 1.6 million tons and may surge to 1.8–2.0 million tons by month-end.
II. Recent Fluctuations in China’s Fertilizer Market (Sep 11–18, 2025)
(1) Raw Material Market: Regional Divergence and Supply–Demand Stalemate
Phosphate Rock: Limited Supply Supports Stable Prices
Domestic market: Northern production remained low due to environmental inspections; outbound transport from Sichuan was restricted by road repairs; southern production areas faced insufficient supply and demand. The market mainly focused on fulfilling existing orders, with overall prices stable.
Import market: Egyptian cargoes (26–27% grade) arrived at USD 80–90/ton CIF, while part of Batam’s 28–30% grade was concluded at USD 95–98/ton CIF. Domestic enterprises were active in inquiries but large deals were scarce. Cargoes mainly flowed into Guangdong, Shandong, and the Yangtze River basin.
Sulfur: Tug-of-War Between High Offshore Prices and Weak Demand
Port inventories remained stable at 2.42 million tons, unchanged from last week. Supported by high international prices, domestic prices showed a fluctuating upward trend. However, downstream phosphate fertilizer producers reduced operating rates and procurement, resulting in a stalemate. In the short term, prices are expected to remain volatile, with focus on downstream restocking pace.
Sulfuric Acid: Weak Demand Triggers Broad Price Declines
Prices fell across major producing areas such as Hebei, Anhui, and Shandong, with enterprises under pressure to ship. Given weak downstream demand and lack of favorable support, short-term prices remain under pressure. Subsequent adjustments will mainly be driven by regional supply–demand differences.
Synthetic Ammonia: Significant Regional Price Differences, Weak Consolidation Dominates
Core contradiction: Transport radius limits result in significant regional disparities.
(2) Phosphate Fertilizer Market: Divergence Between Domestic and Overseas Demand Increases Inventory Pressure
Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): High Inventory with Loosening Costs
Agricultural grade: Hubei 55% powder MAP ex-works price was RMB 3,300–3,350/ton. High previous operating rates led to inventory buildup. Producers voluntarily reduced load, while traders remained cautious, with few new orders.
Industrial grade: Hubei 73% industrial MAP stood at RMB 5,700/ton. With weak agricultural demand and slowing growth in the lithium iron phosphate sector, downstream buyers pushed aggressively for price cuts, resulting in weak end-user interest.
Demand side: Weak MAP demand from South America further dragged down overall transactions.
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): Export Support Keeps Prices High
Hubei 64% granular DAP was quoted at RMB 3,800–3,850/ton, with tight domestic supply underpinned by export quotas.
International market: Large tenders from Ethiopia and Bangladesh provided additional support for the DAP market.
(3) Global Urea Market: Regional Divergence Intensifies Competition
Price Trends: North Africa Prices Rise Against the Trend, While Asia and Latin America Remain Weak
Core Contradictions
Supporting factors: Tight North African supply; India’s agricultural demand window approaching with rumors of new tenders; speculation on China’s extended export window, further fueling volatility.
Restraining factors: Limited purchasing power in unsubsidized markets of Africa and South America; Brazilian prices approaching buyers’ affordability ceiling.
(4) Domestic Potash Market: Strong Supply and Weak Demand Put Prices Under Pressure
Supply–Demand Structure: Rising Imports Meet Weak Demand
Supply side: September imports surged, with port inventories expected to hit 1.8–2.0 million tons by month-end. October arrivals are projected to be even higher, confirming a loose supply pattern.
Demand side: Compound fertilizer plant operating rates remained below 40%; the traditional autumn season was weaker than expected. Distributors were cautious in restocking, with new transactions scarce.
Prices and Outlook
Market prices gradually aligned with guidance levels, while traders cut quotes to improve cash flow, leaving small sporadic deals as the main form of circulation.
Short term: “Strong supply, weak demand” remains the dominant theme. Attention should focus on terminal fertilizer sales during autumn and the adjustment of international shipment rhythms to identify potential turning points.
III. Conclusion
From January to August 2025, China’s fertilizer import and export market showed a pattern of “overall growth with product divergence.”
Exports: Under policy regulation, urea achieved a remarkable 492.3% YoY surge thanks to a more relaxed export window. Ammonium sulfate maintained steady growth, while MAP and DAP exports declined due to quota cuts. Large international tenders from Ethiopia and Bangladesh became the core support for DAP exports.
Imports: Signs of a supply easing turning point emerged. Potash arrivals concentrated in September pushed port inventories toward 2 million tons. Both explicit and implicit imports fell YoY, reflecting an improvement in China’s self-sufficiency capacity.
By mid-September, the Chinese market was characterized by “regional divergence and supply–demand games”:
Raw materials: Phosphate rock prices remained supported amid environmental inspections and transport constraints; sulfur fluctuated between strong offshore support and weak domestic demand; sulfuric acid fell across the board on sluggish consumption; synthetic ammonia showed a “strong South, weak North” pattern due to transport radius constraints.
Phosphate fertilizers: Divergence between domestic and overseas demand intensified. MAP came under pressure from high inventories and loosening costs, while DAP stayed firm thanks to export quotas.
Potash: A clear “strong supply, weak demand” situation emerged, with prices converging toward guidance levels.
Global urea: Divergence appeared as North Africa saw rising prices while Asia and Latin America remained weak. Market dynamics revolved around expectations of India’s new tender versus limited purchasing power in unsubsidized markets.
Looking ahead to Q4, three key variables warrant close attention:
Implementation of the second-phase phosphate fertilizer export quotas (inspection deadline: October 15).
The peak level of potash port inventories and the recovery pace of terminal autumn fertilizer demand.
The outcome of India’s urea tenders and the direction of China’s export policy.
In addition, freight fluctuations and cost transmission triggered by geopolitical conflicts will continue to shape market balance. Overall, the market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern of “policy dominance, regional divergence, and supply–demand mismatch.”
Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
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