Summary of China’s Fertilizer Import, Export, and Market Trends

I. Overview of China’s Fertilizer Import and Export (January–October 2025)

(1) Exports: Significant Growth in Both Volume and Value

From January to October 2025, China exported a total of 38.42 million tons of bulk fertilizers, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.3%. The total export value reached USD 11.55 billion, up 64.56% from the previous year.

In October alone, exports remained exceptionally strong: 5.057 million tons, up 71.1% year-on-year, with an export value of USD 1.663 billion, surging 101.2% compared to the same period last year. This continued the high growth trend seen throughout the year.

(2) Imports: Slight Decline in Volume and Value, with Stable Monthly Prices

During the same period, China imported 11.043 million tons of various fertilizers, down 3.7% year-on-year, with an import value of USD 3.724 billion, a 1.5% decrease.

In October, imports totaled 1.362 million tons, valued at USD 509 million, with an average CIF price of USD 373.86 per ton.

II. Raw Material Market Dynamics: Sulfur Leads the Gains Amid Divergent Supply-Demand Trends

(1) Phosphate Rock: Stable Supply-Demand, Partial Withholding Supports Prices

The domestic phosphate rock market in China remained generally stable, with mines and traders mainly focused on fulfilling pending orders. In northern production regions, operations have gradually returned to normal, easing earlier tightness in supply. However, downstream demand has been limited due to plant maintenance, putting slight pressure on prices.

In contrast, in southern major producing regions such as Hubei, some mines halted production early as mining quotas were exhausted. In Sichuan and Guizhou, strong reluctance to sell kept prices firm.

Globally, the phosphate rock market saw little fluctuation. Chinese enterprises procured on-demand, mainly led by southern buyers. From January to September 2025, China imported 1.1788 million tons of phosphate rock, with 162,600 tons imported in September—mostly unground rock.

(2) Sulfur: Tight Supply, Prices Biased Upward

Total sulfur inventory at Chinese ports stood at 2.26 million tons, slightly down month-on-month. Market tension between supply and demand was evident.

On the supply side, the temporary export ban from Russia and reduced output from Qatar and Kazakhstan refineries tightened availability. On the demand side, newly commissioned fertilizer capacities continued to expand consumption, supporting price increases.

India’s latest CFR transaction at USD 470/ton further boosted market sentiment. Spot transactions at Chinese ports remained active, and traders held back sales to push prices higher. Although downstream buyers in China were cautious about chasing high prices, the overall tightness in supply meant that prices were more likely to rise than fall.

(3) Sulfuric Acid: Cost-Driven Price Increase Continues

The sulfuric acid market extended its upward trajectory, driven by high costs of pyrite and sulfur. In central China, steady operations at phosphate fertilizer and phosphate salt plants maintained strong demand. Combined with low inventory levels among sulfuric acid producers, prices continued to rise.

In the short term, the market still has upward potential, though regional variations will depend on supply-demand and transportation factors.

(4) Synthetic Ammonia: Mixed Trends with Regional Divergence

Overall, the market remained in a sideways consolidation. Prices in Hebei rebounded slightly from low levels; in central China, low liquid ammonia inventories pushed prices higher, though the return of some producers may later create downward pressure. In the southwest, prices stayed stable as some plants remained under maintenance.

Downstream buyers purchased mainly on demand, keeping short-term prices in a weak, fluctuating range. Transportation radius constraints also contributed to persistent regional price spreads.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market: Cost-Driven Price Increases, Demand Focused on Just-in-Time Purchases

High sulfur prices sharply pushed up production costs for phosphate fertilizers, prompting producers to raise selling prices accordingly. However, downstream buyers remained cautious, limiting purchases to immediate needs rather than large-scale stocking. The market stayed in a temporary equilibrium between supply and demand.

III. Potash Fertilizer Market: Off-Season Prices Rise Against Trend Amid Tight Balance

(1) Potassium Chloride: Limited Circulation, Northeast Granular Grades Lead the Gains

Despite the traditional agricultural off-season, the potassium chloride market rose instead of falling, mainly due to tight circulation. Port inventories remained at historically low levels, and longer import lead times exacerbated the imbalance. Traders adopted a wait-and-see attitude and withheld sales, further restricting supply.

In the northeastern region, winter storage demand from farmers drove early procurement, resulting in localized buying rushes and price increases well above the national average. High logistics costs and limited inflows of external cargo also added to regional price hikes.

(2) Potassium Sulfate: Low Operating Rates Support Stable Prices

The market remained steady overall, with producers’ quotations holding at previous levels. Actual transactions were mostly negotiated case by case, reflecting cautious attitudes from both buyers and sellers.

Producers using the Mannheim process continued operating at low rates due to environmental policies and high raw material costs; some halted production periodically, easing inventory pressure and preventing large price fluctuations.

On the demand side, purchases were driven by rigid demand from high-value crops, with little overall volume growth despite upstream price transmission from potassium chloride.

IV. Market Summary

In October–November 2025, China’s fertilizer market exhibited a pattern of divergent import-export performance, raw-material-led gains, and inter-category competition.

• Exports: Both volume and value surged, with cumulative exports for January–October up nearly 50%, and October’s monthly exports more than doubling year-on-year.

  
  

• Imports: Slightly declined in both volume and value, with an average CIF price of USD 373.86/ton in October.

  
  

• Raw materials: Sulfur led the price rise due to tightened global supply, with phosphate rock prices firm amid selective withholding, sulfuric acid following upward, and synthetic ammonia showing regional divergence.

  
  

• Phosphate fertilizers: Price increases driven by sulfur costs, while downstream purchases remained demand-based.

  
  

• Potash fertilizers: Prices rose against the seasonal trend, led by northeast granular grades amid tight circulation; potassium sulfate remained stable due to low operating rates.

  
  

In the short term, the market is expected to remain steady with localized adjustments, with close attention needed on northeast winter stockpiling pace, international price transmission, and changes in raw material supply.

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.