Fertilizer import and export details for September 2025 and analysis of the phosphorus and potassium market dynamics in mid-October

I. Comprehensive Overview of Fertilizer and Related Goods Imports and Exports in September 2025

(1) Export Market: Ammonium Sulfate Leads with Significant Overall Growth

Since the beginning of 2025, China’s fertilizer export market has continued to expand, with total fertilizer exports from January to September reaching 33.363 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 45.4%.

Among them, ammonium sulfate remained the dominant export variety, with cumulative exports reaching 15.1476 million tons during the first nine months.

Looking at the performance in September alone, the top five export products maintained a clear and stable structure:

• Ammonium sulfate ranked first with 2.2522 million tons,

• Urea followed closely with 1.3712 million tons,

• Diammonium phosphate (DAP), NP compound fertilizers, and fertilizers in small packages (≤10 kg) ranked third to fifth with 0.3854 million tons, 0.3668 million tons, and 0.3228 million tons, respectively.

(2) Import Market: Potash and Sulfur as the Core Categories

On the import side, the top five imported fertilizer products from January to September were:

Other potassium chlorides (excluding pure KCl) – 8.6679 million tons,

Sulfur – 8.0098 million tons.

Uncrushed phosphate rock – 1.1782 million tons,

NPK compound fertilizers – 0.8578 million tons,

Ammonia – 0.3353 million tons.

Potash-related products and sulfur clearly dominated China’s fertilizer import structure.

In September, the data further confirmed strong rigid demand:

• Potassium chloride (including pure KCl) – 1.1169 million tons,

• Sulfur – 0.7931 million tons,

• NPK compound fertilizers – 0.0978 million tons,

• Ammonia – 0.0331 million tons,

  
  

  with all major categories maintaining stable import volumes.

  
  

(3) Taiwan Region: Stable Imports Driven by Production Needs

From January to September 2025, Taiwan’s fertilizer and raw material imports remained primarily demand-driven, with 11 categories exceeding 5,000 tons of cumulative imports.

The largest imported product was anhydrous ammonia at 380,900 tons, followed by potassium chloride at 269,000 tons. Urea, various phosphoric acids, and ammonium chloride recorded import volumes of 97,800 tons, 33,400 tons, and 6,400 tons, respectively. These steady supplies of essential raw materials supported local agricultural production requirements.

II. China’s Phosphate Fertilizer Market: Sharp Cost Fluctuations Trigger Industry Adjustment

(1) Upstream Raw Material Market: Sulfur Surges, Phosphate Rock Loosens Slightly

Volatility in raw material prices has become the key variable affecting the phosphate fertilizer market.

Sulfur prices have risen sharply due to the linkage between domestic and international markets. China’s total port inventory dropped slightly to around 2.36 million tons.

In the international market, Qatar’s sulfur tender price reached FOB $412 / ton, strongly driving up Chinese prices. Domestically, due to tight availability at major ports along the Yangtze River, both manufacturers and traders increased restocking efforts, pushing transaction prices higher. Although domestic producers showed some resistance to high sulfur prices, elevated overseas quotations limited import replenishment, making the high price trend difficult to reverse.

The phosphate rock market remained relatively stable, with supply marginally improving. Domestic mines and traders mainly executed previously signed forward orders. Downstream phosphate fertilizer plants maintained stable operating rates and sufficient raw material reserves, with some holding inventories covering about one month of consumption.

On the supply side, major production regions in northern China (e.g., Liaoning) have gradually resumed normal operations, easing earlier tightness. Southern production areas continued operating steadily, leading to an overall more relaxed supply situation.

The sulfuric acid market rose sharply under dual pressure from higher sulfur prices and tighter supply. In Guangdong, sulfuric acid from pyrite increased due to rising pyrite costs. In East and Central China, limited spot availability and maintenance shutdowns at several plants tightened supply further, stimulating active transactions and synchronized price hikes. Short-term upward potential remains.

(2) Phosphate Fertilizer Producers: Cost Pressure Forces Quotation Suspension and Production Limits

The sharp increase in sulfur prices has caused severe cost volatility for phosphate fertilizer manufacturers, forcing temporary industry adjustments. To avoid uncontrollable cost risks, most producers have suspended quotations, while downstream buyers purchase only as needed.

As another key raw material for phosphate fertilizer production, synthetic ammonia displayed regional differentiation and overall weakness. In North and Central China, sufficient supply exerted downward pressure on prices; in contrast, in the southwest (Hubei, Hunan), delayed restarts after maintenance caused short supply. Given the currently low price level, a potential rebound in low-end prices is expected. Regional price differences persist due to transportation radius constraints.

III. Potash Fertilizer Market: Intensified Supply–Demand Game and Increasing Polarization

(1) Potassium Chloride Market: Gradual Decline and Clear Regional Differentiation

The potassium chloride market entered a stalemate characterized by increased supply and weak demand, with prices diverging among regions. Overall national prices declined slowly, mainly for granular KCl, while other grades remained stable at low levels.

In northeastern China, a key consumption region, new shipments have arrived but slow market activation and insufficient demand led to more pronounced price drops for granular KCl. This downward trend is gradually spreading nationwide. Even high-end prices for standard 62% KCl have moved closer to lower levels, causing an overall downward shift in the price center.

Regionally, the pattern of “higher prices in the south, lower in the north” became evident. Northern regions, supported by sufficient supply from China–Europe rail routes and seaports, saw prices decline. Southern regions faced fewer arrivals, maintaining relatively high price levels.

Currently, port inventories of KCl exceeded 2 million tons and continue to grow. Large traders are actively offloading stock to reduce inventory, narrowing the gap with guide prices. However, weak downstream demand limits transaction volume, and the market lacks strong momentum for change.

(2) Potassium Sulfate Market: Cost Pressure and Declining Prices

The potassium sulfate market continued to edge downward under the combined influence of fluctuating raw material prices and sluggish demand, putting manufacturers under mounting pressure.

Mannheim-process potassium sulfate producers faced dual cost compression: while KCl prices fell slightly, sulfur prices rose sharply, far outweighing KCl’s decline. As a result, production costs surged, operating rates remained low, and many plants faced inventory buildup and losses.

Downstream compound fertilizer plants, burdened with high finished-product inventories, showed limited interest in new purchases, leaving transactions stagnant.

Resource-based potassium sulfate plants maintained stable official quotations, but actual sales remained difficult. Distributors in multiple regions reported weak sales and growing negotiation pressure, leading to downward price adjustments. The supply–demand imbalance persisted across the sector.

(3) Overall Market: Stalemate Between Supply and Demand with Limited Short-Term Breakthrough

The current potash fertilizer market continues to exhibit the core contradiction of rising supply versus weak demand.

On the supply side, steady arrivals of imported KCl have pushed port inventories beyond 2 million tons, while domestic production and shipments remain stable, further intensifying supply pressure.

On the demand side, the autumn fertilizer application season is drawing to a close. Although improved weather slightly boosted compound fertilizer plant operating rates, high inventories restrained their willingness to purchase new raw materials. The northeast, a key consumption region, has shown particularly slow demand recovery.

Overall, intensified supply–demand competition has reduced traders’ enthusiasm, resulting in stagnant transactions and minor price fluctuations. In the short term, unless downstream inventory digestion accelerates or a significant positive shift occurs in the international potash market, the domestic market will likely remain in a narrow range of volatility.

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.