China’s Fertilizer Imports & Exports (Jan–Nov 2025) and Year-End Market Dynamics:Policy-Led Supply Assurance Dominates as Inter-Fertilizer Competition Intensifies
- Fernando Chen
- 24 minutes ago
- 4 min read
From January to November 2025, China’s fertilizer imports and exports showed a clear pattern of rising export volumes and prices alongside a slight decline in imports.
Toward year-end (mid-December), the market centered on three main themes: policy-driven price stability and supply assurance for phosphate fertilizers, supply–demand tug-of-war in the potash market, and policy regulation of upstream raw materials. Phosphate rock, sulfur, and sulfuric acid exhibited divergent trends under policy influence, while phosphate compound fertilizers and potash entered critical phases characterized respectively by policy-anchored price stability and supply–demand stalemate.
I. Core Data on China’s Fertilizer Imports & Exports (Jan–Nov 2025)
(1) Exports: Both Volume and Value Increased, with Urea Showing the Most Notable Growth
According to customs statistics, China exported 4.44 million tons of various fertilizers in November 2025. Cumulative exports from January to November reached 42.86 million tons, up 46.4% year on year. Export value totaled USD 12.937 billion, representing a 61.5% year-on-year increase, clearly reflecting a simultaneous rise in both volume and price.
By product category, urea emerged as the primary driver of export growth, with cumulative exports of 4.62 million tons from January to November—a year-on-year surge of 1,687.3%. Ammonium sulfate recorded the largest export volume overall, totaling 19.36 million tons, up 26.1% year on year.
In contrast, phosphate fertilizers showed declining export trends: DAP exports totaled 3.32 million tons, down 23.6%, while MAP exports reached 1.78 million tons, down 4.6% year on year.
(2) Imports: Slight Decline, with Potash Remaining the Core Import Category
In November 2025, China imported 1.39 million tons of fertilizers. From January to November, the import structure was still dominated by potash fertilizers. Potassium chloride (KCl) imports totaled 11.15 million tons, down slightly by 0.6% year on year. Imports of NPK compound fertilizers reached 1.10 million tons, a 5.3% decline, resulting in an overall marginal contraction in total imports.
II. Raw Material Markets: Policy Regulation Takes the Lead, with Divergent Product Trends
During December 12–18, upstream raw material markets were strongly influenced by phosphate fertilizer price-stability and supply-assurance policies, displaying clear policy guidance and pronounced regional differentiation.
Phosphate Rock: Overall stability in both southern and northern China, with continued supply-side constraints.
In the south, outbound shipments from Guizhou remained limited; Sichuan shipments were relatively normal; and Hubei’s external sales were constrained by mining quota restrictions. In the north, environmental inspections limited supply increases, while weak demand support kept prices broadly stable.
Sulfur: Divergence between domestic and imported markets, with policy-led wait-and-see sentiment.
Domestic sulfur suppliers prioritized ensuring domestic supply, offering price concessions or reducing contract prices for downstream users, while imported sulfur prices remained elevated. Following the official positioning of sulfur during China’s phosphate fertilizer supply-assurance meeting, Yangtze River ports temporarily withheld quotations, pushing the market into a cautious observation phase.
Sulfuric Acid: Localized price increases of RMB 20–70/ton, with policy mandating priority supply to phosphate fertilizers.
The supply-assurance meeting clarified that, under equal conditions, sulfuric acid producers should prioritize phosphate fertilizer producers. Smelter acid prices were capped based on December 11 levels, with encouragement for long-term supply contracts. Overall market conditions remained stable, with limited localized upward adjustments.
Synthetic Ammonia: Volatile consolidation with notable regional disparities.
Central China saw weaker demand and declining prices due to environmental factors; East China experienced slight price increases amid tight supply from maintenance shutdowns; Southwest China remained firm as multiple plants underwent maintenance. In the short term, shipments were mainly conducted at stable prices, with regional price differentials persisting due to transportation radius constraints.
III. Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Market: Policy-Driven Price Stability and Supply Assurance, Exports Temporarily Curtailed
The phosphate fertilizer market is currently governed by a “price stability and supply assurance” policy framework. Official meetings have stipulated that phosphate fertilizer prices must not rise before the end of the spring planting season, with upstream sulfur supplies coordinated to support this objective.
On the supply side, producers are prioritizing the domestic market. On the export side, weaker international market conditions combined with domestic supply policies have led to temporary export slowdowns, resulting in moderate trading sentiment. Overall prices remain stable, effectively easing supply pressures in China’s phosphate fertilizer market.
IV. Potash Market: Supply–Demand Tug-of-War Enters a Critical Phase, with Stable Prices and Weak Volumes
China’s potash market continues to operate in a “stable prices, sluggish transactions” pattern. Upstream efforts to support prices and cautious downstream procurement have created a stalemate.
(1) Potassium Chloride (KCl): Inventory Tightening Amid Slow Transactions
Ongoing inventory contraction and tight circulating supply:
Imported KCl inventories remain at annual lows, with mainstream port stocks significantly lower than the same period last year. Certain grades are reportedly hard to source. Supplies are concentrated in the hands of major traders, with widespread withholding or suspension of sales, driven by high international prices, exporter policy adjustments, and China’s domestic regulatory measures.
Price range stalemate with emerging regional differences:
Northern prices remain near the upper end of the range due to relatively stable demand, while southern prices hover closer to the lower end, with slight localized increases.
Cautious downstream procurement, transactions driven by rigid demand:
Compound fertilizer producers maintain stable operating rates but mainly replenish on a need-based basis, with limited appetite for large orders. End-user fertilizer demand has not fully materialized, slowing distributor stocking. Transactions are dominated by small and spot orders. Large traders rely on long-term contracts and direct supply channels to introduce lower-priced material and meet basic demand.
(2) Potassium Sulfate (SOP): Cost Support Versus Weak Demand
Stable quotations with pressure on high-end sales:
Despite elevated costs for KCl and sulfuric acid, downstream acceptance of high-end prices remains limited, slowing transactions at higher price levels.
Clearly divided demand with insufficient support:
Agricultural demand is in the off-season, and winter stocking volumes are constrained by high prices. Industrial demand has declined markedly due to environmental production restrictions, resulting in a stalemate characterized by high costs and weak demand.
(3) Short-Term Outlook: Continued Tug-of-War, Limited Price Breakout Potential
In the near term, China’s potash market remains locked in a struggle between tight supply balance and weak effective demand.
High import costs and low inventories provide price support for KCl, but elevated prices suppress downstream purchasing, leading to a situation of “prices without volume.” Potassium sulfate faces margin compression from both upstream costs and downstream resistance.
Under this stalemate, prices are unlikely to break out in the short term, though potential volatility driven by demand-side changes should be closely monitored.
Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
