Global Fertilizer Industry Strategy and Trade Dynamics in 2025: U.S. List Expansion, Demand Outlook, and China’s Import–Export Landscape

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the global fertilizer industry is marked by distinct trends of “strategic upgrading, rising demand, and active trade.”

The United States has, for the first time, included phosphate rock and potash in its Critical Minerals List, underscoring the national-security importance of fertilizer resources.

Nutrien, the world’s largest fertilizer producer, forecasts continued growth in global potash demand in 2026, prompting adjustments in industry planning.

Meanwhile, China, as a major fertilizer trading nation, reported strong import and export performance in October, highlighting its pivotal role in the global supply chain.

Together, these developments outline the current structure and future direction of the global fertilizer industry.

I. Expansion of the U.S. Critical Minerals List: Fertilizer Raw Materials Enter Strategic Classification for the First Time

In early November 2025, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released a draft update of its Critical Minerals List, adding ten new materials—including phosphates and potash—raising the total number of critical minerals from 50 in 2022 to 54.

This adjustment breaks the previous focus on energy-transition materials such as lithium and cobalt and, for the first time, explicitly identifies core fertilizer raw materials as key minerals essential to national security and economic stability.

It marks a formal elevation of the strategic importance of agricultural minerals.

(1) Core Drivers Behind Inclusion: Import Dependence Linked to Food Security

The USGS explained that the addition of phosphate rock and potash stems from their “high economic importance and increasing import dependency.”

Data shows that U.S. agriculture consumes 85% of the nation’s potash supply, yet this demand is almost entirely met through imports—mainly from Canada, Belarus, and Russia.

Domestic production of phosphate rock has stagnated at around 20 million tonnes per year, while net import dependence has risen to 13% of apparent consumption.

Officials from the Department of the Interior emphasized during the press briefing that “this move highlights the deep interconnection between food security and mineral security; disruptions in fertilizer supply would directly threaten agricultural output, price stability, and economic resilience.”

Supporting this assessment is the USGS’s newly enhanced Trade Disruption Model, which simulated more than 1,200 global supply-shock scenarios across 84 mineral commodities.

The results show that phosphate rock and potash exhibit exceptionally high vulnerability due to “high production concentration, elevated geopolitical risk, and a lack of domestic substitutes.”

Other minerals added simultaneously include key industrial inputs such as silver and copper. In contrast, most of the minerals removed from the list were excluded due to low economic sensitivity or sufficiently diversified supply sources.

(2) Policy and Market Impacts: Strategic Empowerment and Expected Industry Restructuring

Inclusion in the Critical Minerals List will bring substantial policy benefits to the phosphate and potash industries, including accelerated federal permitting, expanded research and development funding, and tax incentives for domestic exploration and processing.

It also places these materials within the same national-security framework as defense metals and clean-energy minerals, potentially strengthening the resilience of the global fertilizer supply chain.

Industry response has been positive. Organizations such as The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) and the American Farm Bureau Federation expressed strong support, emphasizing that “agricultural minerals should be given the same strategic priority as battery metals.”

According to TFI data, earlier import restrictions caused U.S. potash imports to drop by 36% year-on-year between April and July 2025, highlighting supply-chain vulnerabilities and reinforcing the rationale for updating the list.

Caleb Ragland, President of the American Soybean Association, stated that the move “represents a critical step toward reducing agricultural production cost pressures and underscores the importance of stabilizing domestic fertilizer supply,” aligning closely with the Trump administration’s supply-chain strategy to “reduce dependence on imports of critical resources.”

II. Nutrien’s Demand Outlook: Global Potash Demand Set to Grow Again in 2026, Driving Adjustments in Industry Structure

As the world’s largest fertilizer producer, Canada-based Nutrien released its market outlook in early November, providing important insights into industry trends. Due to intensified nutrient depletion from strong 2025 crop production and reduced capacity from major producing countries, global potash demand is expected to grow for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, with shipments projected to rise from 73–75 million tonnes in 2025 to 74–77 million tonnes.

This forecast is closely tied to the oligopolistic structure of the global potash industry, in which Canada, Russia, and Belarus together account for 69.4% of global production capacity—making supply-side adjustments highly influential on market dynamics.

(1) Drivers of Demand Growth: Soil Nutrient Depletion and Supply Contraction Moving in Tandem

Nutrien CEO Ken Seitz explained during the company’s Q3 earnings call that strong global crop yields in 2025 have led to significant soil nutrient depletion, which will trigger a peak in replenishment fertilizer demand in 2026. At the same time, declining supply from major producing countries—such as China—will further intensify the market’s tight balance.

From a regional perspective, phosphate prices in North America remain elevated due to the rising strategic importance of the United States in global supply chains. The price outlook is widely considered positive, providing strong momentum for investment in related industries.

(2) Corporate Strategy Adjustments: Focusing on Core Operations and Optimizing Asset Structure

Based on its market outlook, Nutrien announced that it will redefine the positioning of its phosphate business in 2026. This segment accounts for 6% of company revenues and is considered non-core, and may therefore undergo “operational restructuring, partnership exploration, or asset divestiture” in the future.

At the same time, the company is advancing the divestment of non-core assets, including an idle nitrogen plant in Trinidad—which was shut down in October due to port access and natural gas supply issues, with lost output expected to be compensated by other production sites—as well as selected South American assets.

The divestment of its South American operations is expected to generate approximately CAD 900 million in proceeds.

Seitz emphasized that these adjustments aim to “enhance the profitability of core businesses,” aligning with broader structural shifts in the global fertilizer industry.

III. China’s Fertilizer Imports and Exports in October 2025: Strong Trade Growth with Distinct Structural Features

According to data from China Customs, China’s fertilizer trade maintained strong momentum from January to October 2025, with both export volume and export value increasing significantly. Meanwhile, import activity remained concentrated on key raw materials. As a result, China continues to play a dual role in the global fertilizer trade network—as both a “major supply hub” and a “large-volume buyer.”

(1) Overall Import–Export Dynamics: Strong Export Growth and Import Concentration on Core Raw Materials

On the export side, China exported a total of 38.42 million tonnes of fertilizers from January to October—an impressive year-on-year increase of 48.3%. Ammonium sulfate was the dominant export product, with cumulative shipments reaching 17.156 million tonnes, accounting for 44.7% of all fertilizer exports. In October alone, the top five exported products were:

• Ammonium sulfate (2.0085 million tonnes)

• Urea (1.2022 million tonnes)

• Diammonium phosphate (DAP) (356,800 tonnes)

• Fertilizer in small packages below 10 kg (303,700 tonnes)

• Ammonium chloride for fertilizer use (267,500 tonnes)

These figures highlight the strong presence of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers in export flows.

On the import side, the top five imported products from January to October were:

• Potassium chloride (other than pure KCl) – 9.8809 million tonnes

• Sulfur – 8.6987 million tonnes

• Unmilled phosphate rock – 1.3761 million tonnes

• NPK compound fertilizers – 991,100 tonnes

• Ammonia – 340,300 tonnes

This pattern underscores China’s rigid demand for potash, sulfur, and other essential production inputs. October import activity remained robust, with 688,900 tonnes of sulfur and 1.2186 million tonnes of potassium chloride (including pure KCl) imported, providing critical raw-material support for subsequent production.

(2) Phosphate Fertilizer Exports and Phosphate Rock Imports: Clear Regional Patterns and Mild Price Fluctuations

China’s phosphate fertilizer exports show clear characteristics of “product differentiation and destination concentration.” In October, monoammonium phosphate (MAP) exports reached 249,100 tonnes, with cumulative exports from January to October totaling 1.4983 million tonnes. Major destinations included emerging agricultural economies such as Brazil (59,600 tonnes) and Indonesia (29,400 tonnes).

Diammonium phosphate (DAP) exports stood at 356,800 tonnes in October, bringing cumulative January–October exports to 2.8707 million tonnes, with Bangladesh (120,000 tonnes) and Pakistan (52,300 tonnes) serving as the core markets. Export volumes of single superphosphate (SSP) and triple superphosphate (TSP) remained relatively small, mainly flowing to Southeast Asia and Oceania.

On the phosphate rock import side, China imported a cumulative 1.3768 million tonnes from January to October, with unmilled phosphate rock accounting for more than 99% of the volume. October imports totaled 197,900 tonnes, with an average import price of USD 84 per tonne—a slight USD 3 decline from September. Import sources were highly concentrated, with Egypt (115,600 tonnes) and Jordan (81,300 tonnes) together making up 99.5% of October’s import volume, reflecting China’s strong dependence on Middle Eastern and North African phosphate resources.

IV. Summary of Global Fertilizer Industry Trends

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the global fertilizer market demonstrates three major trends:

First, the strategic importance of fertilizer minerals is rising. The United States’ inclusion of phosphate rock and potash in its Critical Minerals List signals a shift from treating agricultural minerals as “market commodities” to recognizing them as “strategic resources.” This policy elevation is expected to reshape global industry investment patterns.

Second, the tight global supply–demand balance is set to persist. Nutrien’s forecast of continued growth in global potash demand in 2026—combined with the highly concentrated global production landscape—will support sustained high fertilizer prices.

Third, global trade patterns remain stable. As both a “major exporter” and a “large-scale importer of raw materials,” China continues to strengthen its position as a pivotal hub in the global fertilizer supply chain, with increasingly optimized regional market distribution.

Looking ahead, close attention should be paid to:

• the final implementation of the updated U.S. Critical Minerals List,

• the pace of global capacity expansion.

• geopolitical influences on fertilizer supply chains