China's Fertilizer Import & Export Updates and Market Trends - September
- Fernando Chen
- Oct 13
- 5 min read
I. Import and Export Overview (January–September / September 2025)
According to preliminary statistics from China Customs, in the first three quarters of 2025, China’s fertilizer trade showed a trend of “rising exports in both volume and value” and “declining imports in both volume and value.”
Export growth in September alone was particularly significant. Detailed data are shown in the table below:
II. Potash Market: “Silence with Support” under a Weak Supply–Demand Balance
1. Domestic Market: Three Key Price Supports and Latest Developments in a Quiet Market
At present, the domestic potash market is characterized by the contradiction of “rising supply expectations vs. weak demand.”
Imports arriving at ports and the recovery of China–Europe railway logistics have led to rising inventories. However, downstream compound fertilizer plants remain underoperated due to high inventories, keeping the market in a weak consolidation phase.
Nevertheless, prices have not fallen sharply as expected — thanks to three major supporting factors, and some regions are even showing signs of localized stabilization or rebound.
(1) Core Supporting Factors
• Supply Side – Inventory control and low stock underpin prices
Since July, increased demand and low inventories have driven a steady rise in potassium chloride prices. Border-trade contract prices between China and Russia have been increasing by USD 7–10 per month, with October contracts rising another USD 7.
Although policy emphasizes “supply stability through production,” large importers’ inventory control has tightened spot availability, and some traders directly linked to these importers quote above mainstream levels.
Even as port inventories gradually rise, earlier stock depletion means new arrivals cannot yet fill the gap completely — maintaining price support.
• Demand Side – Rigid demand cushions weak fundamentals
Though compound fertilizer producers maintain low operating rates and weak purchasing interest, direct-supply demand from large importers continues to release.
As direct-supply potash remains relatively low-priced, it has triggered partial restocking. While this demand cannot reverse the overall weak trend, it forces smaller buyers to accept higher market prices — providing indirect price support.
• Policy Environment – Stabilization to curb volatility
Following the introduction of guidance mechanisms similar to urea’s reference sales pricing, bullish sentiment has cooled.
Despite Q4 being the traditional high-demand season, continued regulatory pressure has dampened expectations, reducing traders’ willingness to stock aggressively — resulting in a “weak but steady” price environment.
(2) Latest Price and Supply–Demand Trends in China
• Prices: Mixed movements — some declines, some stabilization, some rebounds
↓ Declines:Port 60% red granular KCl fell to RMB 3,300–3,350/ton, due to increased supply ahead of demand recovery.
Processed 52% fully water-soluble potassium sulfate dropped to RMB 3,800/ton ex-works, affected by weak sales, high inventories, and easing costs.
→ Stable:Port 62% white KCl remained at RMB 3,150–3,450/ton, supported by limited availability.Qinghai 60% powder KCl official station price stood at RMB 3,100/ton (market 3,100–3,150), stable but with sluggish sales.
Resource-based 50% powder potassium sulfate remained around RMB 3,550/ton, with negotiable transactions.
↑ Increases:Border-trade 62% white KCl rebounded to RMB 3,100–3,150/ton, as temporary supply shortages awaited replenishment.
• Supply: Domestic restructuring, import stocks increasing
Domestic potash production, sales, and logistics remain stable. Major producers focus on 57% products, with 60% grades still limited.
Imports are gradually increasing, pushing port KCl inventories up to 1.7–1.75 million tons.
Processed potassium sulfate plants operate at ~40% capacity, with high inventories, while resource-based producers maintain good output.
• Demand: Weak autumn season, focus on winter storage expectations
Autumn demand remains below expectations, with low purchasing activity downstream.Industry attention now shifts to winter storage, expected to drive the next round of demand recovery.
2. International Market: Price Divergence, High Inventories, and Expansion Trends
In October, the global potash market maintained its typical “year-end calm” but showed notable regional price divergence.
Meanwhile, changing inventory and import levels in India and Thailand — as well as expansion projects in Pakistan and Egypt — are reshaping the market landscape.
(1) International Potash Price Updates
(2) Key International Developments
• India – Rising stocks, mixed import trends
As new contract cargoes arrive, India’s potash inventory rose by 150,000 tons MoM to 1.0 million tons by early September, up 11% YoY.
After signing a new long-term contract in June at USD 349/ton CFR (180-day credit), India’s August imports surged 135% YoY to 437,000 tons, though total imports for the April–August fertilizer year still fell 37% YoY to 796,000 tons.
On the consumption side, government-subsidized KCl sales dropped 3% YoY to 201,400 tons in the month but were up 29% YTD to 906,600 tons thanks to early monsoon conditions.
• Thailand – Record-high imports and supplier restructuring
According to Global Trade Tracker, Thailand imported 801,100 tons of KCl from January–August 2025, up 21% YoY, and 28% higher than its 2018 record (626,400 tons).August imports alone rose 8% YoY to 105,700 tons.
On the supply side, Canada remained the largest source (276,800 tons, +9% YoY), followed by Laos (177,800 tons, +12%), Jordan (147,900 tons, sharply up), Germany (50,200 tons, strongly up), and Israel (69,600 tons, +25%), while Belarus exports plummeted 37% to 77,800 tons.
• Pakistan & Egypt – Accelerated expansion of potassium sulfate capacity
Pakistan (Barket Co.): The company’s fourth K₂SO₄ plant began operation on September 15, with total capacity at 50,000 t/y (50% soluble, 50% granular). Plans are underway to expand to 64,500 t/y by Q1 2026.
Egypt (EFIC Co.): The 40,000 t/y water-soluble K₂SO₄ plant in Ain Sokhna, delayed from June to year-end 2025, will serve both domestic and export markets, with another 40,000 t/y expansion scheduled for 2026.
Ⅲ. Market Outlook: Short-Term Fragility, Long-Term Demand Potential
• Short-Term:
A weak supply–demand balance is expected to persist. Rising supply expectations (imports + inventories) and sluggish demand (autumn lull) will continue tugging against each other, limiting price fluctuation range.
However, factors such as reduced border-trade supply and inventory control by major importers may trigger localized rebounds.
• Long-Term:
The key lies in whether Q4 winter storage demand can effectively revive consumption.If replenishment occurs, combined with rising Russian potash prices and new capacity in Pakistan and Egypt reshaping global supply, China’s potash prices may gradually emerge from the “silent phase” and show a steady upward trend.
Otherwise, if demand remains below expectations, the market will likely maintain a low-level consolidation pattern.
Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
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