In early December 2025, China’s fertilizer market entered a critical phase characterized by across-the-board cost increases and a continued tight supply–demand balance. Rising prices of raw materials such as sulfur and sulfuric acid have pushed up costs for phosphate fertilizers and potassium sulfate. Meanwhile, the potash market remains firm at high levels, supported by concentrated supply and rigid winter stocking demand.In the international market, a pattern of strong dem

China’s Annual Contract Anchors Global Pricing While Supply–Demand Dynamics Shape the Market In November 2025, China finalized its 2026 annual potash import contract—an event that quickly became the central anchor for global potash pricing. The agreement not only halted the price slide in several emerging markets but also ignited China’s winter fertilizer stocking season. At the same time, rising sulfur and sulfuric acid prices pushed production costs sharply higher, placing

By the end of November 2025, China’s fertilizer market displayed clear structural characteristics: While the potash sector benefited from the newly signed annual import contract that set a cost floor, downstream demand remained weak, limiting actual transactions and keeping the market in a state of fragile stability. Conversely, upstream raw materials such as phosphate rock, sulfur, and sulfuric acid showed structural upward trends driven by tight supply or cost-push effects.

In November 2025, China’s fertilizer market exhibited a clear trend driven by raw materials. Supported by increasingly tight supply, the potash fertilizer market continued its upward movement, forming a “high in the north, low in the south” price pattern. Meanwhile, sharp increases in the prices of sulfur, sulfuric acid, and other raw materials pushed phosphate compound fertilizer production costs sharply higher, triggering an upward adjustment in industry guideline prices. H

I. Overview of China’s Fertilizer Import and Export (January–October 2025) (1) Exports: Significant Growth in Both Volume and Value From January to October 2025, China exported a total of 38.42 million tons of bulk fertilizers, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.3%. The total export value reached USD 11.55 billion, up 64.56% from the previous year. In October alone, exports remained exceptionally strong: 5.057 million tons, up 71.1% year-on-year, with an export value

I. Potash Fertilizer Market: Intensified Supply–Demand Game and Noticeable Regional/Product Divergence (1) Potassium Chloride Market: Mixed Trends and Narrowing Regional Price Gaps China’s potassium chloride market has shown a complex, fluctuating pattern with clear regional divergence in prices.Imported potassium chloride inventories are characterized by a “more in the north, less in the south” distribution. Local circulation is loose in some areas, but the overall supply–de

I. Comprehensive Overview of Fertilizer and Related Goods Imports and Exports in September 2025 (1) Export Market: Ammonium Sulfate Leads with Significant Overall Growth Since the beginning of 2025, China’s fertilizer export market has continued to expand, with total fertilizer exports from January to September reaching 33.363 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 45.4%. Among them, ammonium sulfate remained the dominant export variety, with cumulative exports reac

I. International Market Updates (1) Indonesia’s B50 Policy Marks a “Historic Turning Point” for Potash Demand Indonesia’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Arifin Tasrif, recently announced that biodiesel containing 50% palm oil-based biofuel (B50) has completed laboratory testing and is expected to be fully implemented in the second half of 2026, aiming to achieve zero diesel imports . This policy will reshape the palm oil industrial chain and trigger an explosive in

In recent days, China’s fertilizer market has shown a clear pattern of “raw material divergence with cost support, and uneven fertilizer...

I. International Fertilizer Market Dynamics (1) Core Tender Events: Driving Global Price Trends India Concludes Urea Tender (September 2)...