The international fertilizer market is currently undergoing unprecedented transformation. Geopolitical conflicts, major policy shifts among leading economies, and supply chain restructuring have significantly increased market volatility. As we move into 2026, the market is no longer driven purely by supply and demand fundamentals. Instead, it has entered a new phase characterized by the parallel forces of “security priority + cost support + policy intervention.” I. The Real I

In early December 2025, China’s fertilizer market entered a critical phase characterized by across-the-board cost increases and a continued tight supply–demand balance. Rising prices of raw materials such as sulfur and sulfuric acid have pushed up costs for phosphate fertilizers and potassium sulfate. Meanwhile, the potash market remains firm at high levels, supported by concentrated supply and rigid winter stocking demand.In the international market, a pattern of strong dem

By the end of November 2025, China’s fertilizer market displayed clear structural characteristics: While the potash sector benefited from the newly signed annual import contract that set a cost floor, downstream demand remained weak, limiting actual transactions and keeping the market in a state of fragile stability. Conversely, upstream raw materials such as phosphate rock, sulfur, and sulfuric acid showed structural upward trends driven by tight supply or cost-push effects.

I. Potash Fertilizer Market: Intensified Supply–Demand Game and Noticeable Regional/Product Divergence (1) Potassium Chloride Market: Mixed Trends and Narrowing Regional Price Gaps China’s potassium chloride market has shown a complex, fluctuating pattern with clear regional divergence in prices.Imported potassium chloride inventories are characterized by a “more in the north, less in the south” distribution. Local circulation is loose in some areas, but the overall supply–de