Fertilizer Market Core Dynamics Briefing – August to Early September 2025

I. International Fertilizer Market Dynamics

(1) Core Tender Events: Driving Global Price Trends

1. India Concludes Urea Tender (September 2)

   
   

   India’s NFL urea import tender shocked the market with a record-high bid volume of 5.6 million tons, with the lowest CFR prices at USD 462.45/t (East Coast) and USD 464.70/t (West Coast)—a sharp drop of nearly USD 70/t compared with last month. This directly triggered a global urea price “avalanche”

   
   

   Price Chain Reaction: Even before the tender results were announced, markets reacted in advance with steep regional declines. Iranian granular urea FOB dropped from USD 405/t to below USD 380/t; Black Sea granular urea fell to USD 410–425/t; Brazil CFR shrank to USD 440–460/t.

   
   

   Market Sentiment: Most traders suspended operations, with the exception of Qatar, which concluded an October shipment at USD 430/t FOB, while awaiting India’s final purchase outcome (India plans to purchase 2 million tons, only about 35% of the bid volume).

   
   

2. Ethiopia DAP/Urea Tender

   
   

   Ethiopia announced a large procurement tender: 540,000 tons of DAP and 449,600 tons of urea, becoming a short-term boost for the international phosphate market. Chinese phosphate producers, leveraging the second round of export quotas, are actively seeking orders to offset sluggish domestic transactions.

   
   

3. Bangladesh Potash Tender (Issued Early September, Deadline September 16)

   
   

   Bangladesh issued a tender for 160,000 tons of MOP, requiring suppliers to match the August winning bid price of USD 382/t (Feritstream/Eurochem previously won 100,000 tons). However, most suppliers refused, exposing global potash pricing divisions:

   
   

   Conflict Point: High ocean freight and energy costs squeeze margins on low-priced orders; suppliers prefer to secure higher-priced contracts and are unwilling to accept a “floor price.”

   
   

   Spillover Effect: Potash tenders from palm oil plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia were delayed until late September, further dampening short-term international demand.

   
   

(2) Global Supply, Demand, and Prices: Multiple Products in a “Weak Demand + Cost Support” Stalemate

1. Urea: Global oversupply signals are clear (India’s 5.6 million-ton bid volume far exceeds its 2 million-ton purchase plan). If India’s procurement falls short of expectations, prices may bottom out toward USD 350/t FOB.

   
   

2. Phosphates: International MAP remains sluggish due to South American off-season demand, while DAP is slightly stronger thanks to Ethiopia’s tender. Phosphate rock quotations in Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco remain stable.

   
   

3. Potash: China’s port MOP inventories are down 45% YoY (1.6 million tons), but weak global demand keeps prices stagnant in the short term. In the medium to long term, the outlook depends on whether restocking during the US/EU agricultural seasons and Asian tenders can create upward momentum.

II. China Fertilizer Market Dynamics

(1) Domestic Raw Material Market: Regional Divergence, Environmental and Transport Factors Affecting Supply

1. Phosphate Rock (Aug 28 – Sep 3)

   
   

   Supply Side: Production in northern regions declined due to environmental inspections, with Liaoning phosphate concentrate prices rising by RMB 10/t. In southern production hubs (Sichuan, Guizhou, Hubei), supply and demand were slightly imbalanced; road construction restricted transport in Shuifu, Sichuan, while inventories in Guizhou increased.

   
   

   Imports: From Jan–Jul 2025, cumulative phosphate rock imports reached 885,800 tons (July alone 119,700 tons). The average July import price was USD 96.74/t, mainly from Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco.

   
   

2. Sulfur (Aug 28 – Sep 3)

   
   

   Inventory: Domestic port inventories totaled 2.32 million tons (flat from the previous week).

   
   

   Trend: September downstream demand shows resilience, but high inventories and squeezed margins limit upward potential; short-term outlook is volatile.

   
   

3. Sulfuric Acid (Aug 28 – Sep 3)

   
   

   Supply and Demand: Tight supply in East and Central China due to plant maintenance; steady supply in Southwest; stable downstream demand from phosphate fertilizer and phosphate chemicals.

   
   

4. Synthetic Ammonia (Aug 28 – Sep 3)

   
   

   Regional Pattern: “Stronger North, weaker South.” Low-end prices in Central China rose (after previous sharp declines). Prices in Shandong rebounded due to plant maintenance, while southern regions remained weak under production pressure.

   
   

   Feature: Transport radius limitations lead to clear regional price differentiation; overall market consolidation.

   
   

(2) Domestic Finished Fertilizer Market: Weak Transactions, Cost vs. Demand Tug-of-War

1. Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP)

   
   

   Agricultural Grade: Producers raised prices early in the week, but downstream response was muted (compound fertilizer plants reducing operations, slow start in Northeast market). New orders for 55% powdered MAP in Hubei remained limited.

   
   

   Industrial Grade (Technical MAP): Supported only by new energy demand. Agricultural demand is weak, while new energy buyers are pushing for lower prices; terminal procurement interest for 73% technical MAP is low.

   
   

2. Diammonium Phosphate (DAP)

   
   

   Supply: Adequate supply of lower grades; tight supply of 64% high-grade led to reasonable station price increases in Shandong.

   
   

   Export: Producers are actively engaging international orders (e.g., Ethiopia’s large tender) under the second round of export quotas, easing domestic pressure.

   
   

3. Urea

   
   

   Trend: As the domestic peak season approaches, export volumes are expected to decline sharply, making China a “supply contraction variable” for the global urea market, indirectly supporting international price floors.

   
   

(3) Fertilizer Imports and Exports: Exports Surge in August, Imports Decline (China Customs Data, Aug 2025)

Dimension	Jan–Aug Cumulative	August Monthly	YoY Change
Export Volume	27.925 million tons (bulk fertilizers)	5.094 million tons (all fertilizers)	+26.2% (Aug)
Export Value	USD 8.033 billion	USD 1.882 billion	+68.0%
Import Volume	8.457 million tons (all fertilizers)	841,000 tons	-6.8% (cumulative)
Import Value	USD 2.745 billion	USD 316 million	-10.0% (cumulative)

III. Linkages Between Domestic and International Markets

1. International Tenders → China Exports: India’s urea tender price cuts and Ethiopia’s DAP tender directly impact China’s export strategies (urea exports contracting, phosphate fertilizer seeking orders through tenders).

   
   

2. China Policy → International Supply: China’s domestic urea peak season and the second round of phosphate export quotas serve as “adjustment variables” for global fertilizer supply.

   
   

3. Raw Material Prices → Cost Transmission: Stable international phosphate rock and sulfur prices support domestic raw material costs, limiting room for price reductions in finished fertilizers.

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.