Global Fertilizer Market Updates - India, Bangladesh, Brazil, China

Global fertilizer market update: India is frequently tendering, Bangladesh has ensured fertilizer supply through government-to-government agreements, Brazil's imports reached a record 4.79 million tons in July, and China's urea exports surged 614% in July.

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India: Frequent Tenders, Noticeable Changes in Import Structure

Tender Developments

India has recently been active in urea procurement. On August 15, National Fertilizers Limited (NFL) announced a new tender for 2 million tons of urea, with 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts, requiring shipment by the end of October. Market expectations suggest the winning price may fall below USD 500/ton CFR, with most bids projected in the USD 470–480/ton CFR range. Chinese supply is considered a decisive factor for final pricing.

In contrast, the tender by Indian Potash Limited (IPL) in early August closed at USD 530–532/ton CFR, with a confirmed import of 2.075 million tons, showing that prices are indeed trending down rapidly.

Import Structure

From April to July of FY2025/26, India’s fertilizer imports increased by 5% year-on-year to 4.85 million tons. Within this period:

• Urea imports rose 22% to 1.24 million tons;

• Diammonium phosphate (DAP) imports grew 35% to 1.98 million tons;

• NPK imports increased 22% to 1.26 million tons;

• Potash imports fell sharply by 67%, down to only 0.35 million tons.

India consumes about 60 million tons of fertilizer annually, with around 10 million tons dependent on imports.

Urea consumption reaches roughly 35 million tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of up to 87%.

However, of the 10–11 million tons of annual DAP demand, about 60% relies on imports. Moreover, domestic DAP production depends heavily on imported raw materials from Senegal, Jordan, South Africa, and Morocco.

Potash is entirely dependent on overseas supply, with long-term import agreements mainly involving Russia, Israel, Belarus, and Jordan.

Policy and Subsidies

• Rising international prices have repeatedly pushed up the fertilizer subsidy budget:

  
  

  • FY 2024-25: Rs. 1.68 billion → Actual Rs. 1.91 billion

    
    

  • FY 2025-26: Budgeted Rs. 1.67 billion, but further increases are possible if global prices remain high.

Bangladesh: Government-to-Government Agreements Secure Supply

Bangladesh continues to rely on intergovernmental agreements for bulk fertilizer procurement, with plans to import 215,000 tons during FY2025/26. The Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) acts as the executing body for contracts signed with Russia, Morocco, and Canada.

Procurement Details

• Potash (MOP): Out of a total FY2025/26 import target of 599,000 tons, 199,000 tons will come from Russia. The first 35,000-ton shipment is priced at USD 361/ton. Canada will supply 400,000 tons in multiple batches, at the same price level.

• Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): Out of the 881,000-ton import target, Morocco will supply 281,000 tons. The second 40,000-ton shipment is priced at USD 782.67/ton.

• Triple Superphosphate (TSP): Out of the 425,000-ton import target, Two 30,000-ton batches are priced at USD 584.67/ton each. Morocco will provide 325,000 tons.

By diversifying sources and signing long-term contracts, Bangladesh ensures stable annual supply and avoids the risk of shortages caused by international price volatility.

Brazil: Record Imports, Supply Diversification Accelerates

Import Trends

In July 2025, Brazil imported 4.79 million tons of fertilizer, the highest monthly figure of the year and a record for July. This represents a 7.1% year-on-year increase and a 15.6% rise compared with June. Total imports from January to July reached 24.2 million tons, up 8.8% year-on-year.

Amid geopolitical uncertainty and changing U.S. tariff policies, market sentiment has turned cautious, and many farmers have opted to purchase early to hedge against potential supply risks.

Supply Structure

• Russia remains Brazil’s largest supplier, exporting 6.88 million tons in the first seven months, accounting for 28.2% of imports.

• China follows with 5.14 million tons, making up 21.2%.

Risk Factors

Brazil could be indirectly affected if tariffs are extended to more trading partners, exacerbating supply uncertainty and pushing up costs.

China: Urea Export Surge, Potash Market Stalemate

Urea: Export Boom Amid Domestic Volatility

In July 2025, China exported 567,000 tons of urea, up 614% year-on-year and 7.6 times higher than in June, with destinations expanding from 13 to 31 countries. This surge is seen as a turning point for the global fertilizer market.

On the policy front, China shifted from the strict restrictions of 2024 to controlled relaxation in 2025. Exports now operate under quota and price management, balancing domestic needs with foreign sales—boosting foreign exchange earnings while preventing domestic shortages. For international markets, especially fertilizer-dependent developing economies, China’s return has significantly eased supply pressures. India is widely viewed as the largest potential beneficiary, and a recovery of Sino-Indian fertilizer trade could form one of the world’s largest fertilizer flows.

Domestically, urea prices have repeatedly spiked on export expectations and policy signals. However, with operating rates above 80%, factory inventories depleting slowly, and downstream demand weak, prices struggle to break the CNY 1,750/ton ceiling. Below CNY 1,700/ton, however, rigid demand emerges, creating a narrow fluctuation range.

Potash: Supply Tightness Meets Weak Demand

China’s potash market remains in a “high-price stalemate.” Domestic potash plants are operating steadily, but environmental curbs have forced some producers to halt orders, reducing available volumes. Import stocks at ports have dropped to about 1.75 million tons, and traders are withholding sales. The mainstream price for imported 60% powder MOP remains at CNY 3,000–3,330/ton.

On the demand side, downstream compound fertilizer plants are slow to resume operations, mostly buying in small lots. A higher share of nitrogen-based formulations has reduced potash consumption further. For potassium sulfate, Mannheim-process plants face cost inversion, keeping operating rates low. Quotes hover between CNY 3,850–4,000/ton, but actual transactions remain weak. Overall, supply tightness underpins a price floor, while the pace of demand recovery will determine any short-term rebound.

Conclusion and Outlook

Overall, the global fertilizer market in August 2025 reflects structural divergence under the interplay of policy, supply chains, and geopolitics:

• India: Frequent tenders drive urea and DAP imports higher, but potash imports have dropped sharply, adding fiscal subsidy pressure.

• Bangladesh: Relies on government-to-government agreements to secure annual supplies of potash, DAP, and TSP, safeguarding food production.

• Brazil: Imports hit record highs, with Russia and China dominating supply, but geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainties remain a challenge.

• China: Urea exports surged, providing a key source of supply for the global fertilizer market; domestic urea prices fluctuated, while the potash fertilizer market remained stagnant at a high level amid tight supply and weak demand.

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.