Fertilizer Market Review – Late August 2025

I. Ammonium Sulfate Market: Stable Both Internationally and Domestically

Overall Trend:The international ammonium sulfate market remained stable, with supply-demand balance as the core support: inventories in major producing regions were sufficient, consumption levels showed no drastic changes; in most agricultural regions, the peak planting season had ended, and fertilizer purchasing activities slowed significantly; the international market faced no new cost pressures and showed no strong bullish or bearish factors. Buyers maintained a cautious yet active stance, with overall supply expected to align with downstream consumption throughout the month.

Regional Performance:

Region	Market Performance	Supply	Demand/Purchasing Behavior	Others
India	Prices remained firm in the first week of August; moderate trading	Domestic production stable + imports from China/Asia; scheduled August arrivals ensured supply continuity; no major disruptions in port logistics	Farmers purchased to support Kharif crops (rice, corn); distributors purchased regularly without speculative stocking	Market remained cautiously balanced
China	Weak demand, sufficient stocks, stable prices	Coking plants maintained stable production	Downstream inquiries subdued; local buyers switched to cheaper substitutes for replenishment; slow trading	Export activities remained low-profile, with weak overseas interest
USA	Market fundamentals stable	Domestic output steady; timely shipments from East Asia/Europe	Agricultural demand (corn/soybean) steady; industrial usage normal; disciplined purchasing, no speculation	Weak export demand to Latin America

Outlook:

Volatility may appear in the coming months. Fertilizer demand recovery could push prices upward, but ongoing geopolitical tensions will continue to influence the market direction.

II. China Potash Fertilizer Market: New Prices Issued, Stable with Slight Adjustments

(1) Overall Trend

The Chinese potash fertilizer market remained generally stable, showing slight adjustments under the combined influence of the winding down of the autumn fertilizer season and industry dynamics. New policies were introduced for domestically produced potassium chloride, while potassium sulfate faced tight supply and sluggish transactions due to uneven resumption schedules. In the short term, potassium chloride output may decrease due to plant maintenance, while expected arrivals of imported potash could weigh down high-end prices. With potassium sulfate capacity gradually being released, supply and demand will move toward balance. Overall, stability is the main tone, with limited room for price fluctuations.

(2) Category Performance

Potassium Chloride Market:

1. Domestic Potash: Supply was mainly directed to compound fertilizer plants; with the autumn fertilizer demand nearing its end, downstream purchasing interest weakened. Some facilities will undergo maintenance in September, which is expected to reduce output and provide some support to supply.

   
   

2. Imported Potash: Few new arrivals at ports and limited new contract execution reduced availability, leading inventories to fall to historically low levels. Circulating supplies remained tight. Prices: 60% Laos potash at RMB 3050–3300/ton; 62% white potash at RMB 3150–3520/ton, with regional transaction prices varying.

   
   

3. Border Trade: Some cargoes cleared customs, with adequate arrivals this month. Border traders engaged in pre-sales (mainly of large-granule products). China-Europe freight train arrivals slightly recovered, but pre-sale prices varied by region. Border-trade 62% white potash was quoted at RMB 3150–3220/ton.

   
   

Potassium Sulfate Market:

1. Overall: Market fluctuations were minimal. Resource-based producers planned to resume production gradually in September, but currently available supply remained insufficient. Downstream compound fertilizer plants saw declining operating rates and slowed purchasing, leading to sluggish transactions and regional price differentiation. Manufacturers have not adjusted their quotations.

   
   

2. Mannheim Process (Processing-based): Operating rates stayed low (due to high potassium chloride feedstock costs and losses from by-product hydrochloric acid). Prices remained temporarily stable.

   
   

(3) Short-Term Outlook

Trader quotations stayed stable. Market rumors suggested that new imported potassium chloride cargoes would supplement supply. Some traders became more willing to release goods, slightly boosting sales. In the short term, weaker compound fertilizer demand and expectations of more imports may slightly soften high-end prices, but reductions will likely be limited by maintenance-related production cuts. The market is currently in a seasonal demand transition period.

III. Sulfur Market: Morocco’s Imports Down 19% in H1, China’s Port Stocks Decline

(1) Morocco’s Import Situation (H1 2025)

1. Import Data: According to GTT data, Morocco imported 3.55 million tons in the first half of 2025, down 19% year-on-year. In 2024, imports reached a record 8.29 million tons. Based on the current pace, total imports in 2025 are expected to approach 7 million tons.

   
   

2. Import Sources: Mainly through long-term contracts from Kazakhstan (1.7 million tons, down 28% year-on-year) and the UAE (1.23 million tons, down 1%). Saudi Arabia delivered 379,000 tons (down 9%), while Qatar’s deliveries dropped from 155,000 tons in H1 2024 to zero.

   
   

3. Stocks and Capacity: Record imports in 2024 had built up inventories, but these were nearly depleted in H1 2025 due to the ramp-up of newly added sulfur-burning units. Additional capacity is planned in the coming two years, including the Jorf Lasfar unit with annual sulfur consumption of 187,000 tons (expected to be operational by mid-2026).

   
   

(2) China’s Sulfur Market (Aug 22–28, 2025)

1. Stocks and Transactions: Total port inventories stood at 2.32 million tons, down 100,000 tons from the previous week. Along the Yangtze River, strong spot transactions were seen early in the week, but buying interest weakened midweek. Some traders rushed to release goods, pushing transaction prices down to RMB 2590/ton.

   
   

2. Outlook: With downstream operating rates remaining high and inventories continuing to decline, rising U.S. dollar-denominated sulfur prices are expected to support import costs. In the short term, prices are more likely to rise than fall.

IV. Phosphate Fertilizer / Phosphates Market: Domestic Sales Weak, DAP Export Outperforms MAP (Aug 22–28, 2025)

(1) Raw Material Market Performance

Raw Material	Price Trend	Supply & Transaction Situation	Outlook
Phosphate Rock	Basically stable	Enterprises maintained stable shipments; September orders were mostly signed. Downstream phosphate fertilizer plants operated at ~60% capacity. Environmental inspections in the north tightened supply, while in the south trading was slightly weaker (inventories in Guizhou increased, outbound logistics in Sichuan recovered).	Mainstream prices remain stable; September orders already signed; market volatility limited.
Sulfuric Acid	Stable with regional differentiation	In Yunnan, low-end prices rose due to fertilizer demand; in Guangdong, plants under maintenance are expected to resume later; in Central China, prices dipped slightly due to rising inventories; in Northeast, tight supply from maintenance pushed prices upward. Stable fertilizer production supported demand, while chemical sector demand drove local variations.	Adjustments in each region will follow supply-demand balance, overall supported by phosphate fertilizer demand.
Synthetic Ammonia	Continued weakness	Prices declined in Central China; in Shandong, just-in-need demand dominated and trading pressure remained. Oversupply led to a buyer’s market, with weak trading and limited downstream support.	High-end prices expected to stay weak in the short term; regional price differentiation persists due to transport radius constraints.

(2) Compound Phosphate Fertilizer Market Performance

1. Domestic Sales: The trading atmosphere remained sluggish. Rising sulfur prices pushed phosphate fertilizer costs to new highs, but companies still retained margins, making production cutbacks unlikely. In Northeast China, the market stayed in a wait-and-see mode, with purchasing postponed. High operating rates led to rising inventories, while traders maintained a cautious stance and limited activity.

   
   

2. Exports: After the issuance of the second export quota, DAP sentiment was stronger than MAP. International inquiries were limited this week (due to higher Chinese export availability, the market remained cautious), but key demand countries still showed rigid demand, keeping DAP trading relatively active. MAP demand from South America remained weak, with sluggish transactions.

   
   

(3) Second Batch of Phosphate Fertilizer Export Quotas & MAP Trend

1. Quota Situation: The second batch was dominated by DAP, with limited MAP volumes. The total is highly likely to exceed 100,000 tons, but still much smaller than the first batch.

   
   

2. MAP Export Prices and Data:

   
   

   • Prices: MAP (11-44) FOB prices climbed steadily in the first half of the year, reaching USD 590/ton by late June (up 20% year-on-year, due to earlier export suspension causing international shortages and South American stockpiling). After July, prices fluctuated and adjusted, currently at USD 565/ton (below the export floor price, with weak transactions).

     
     

   • Data: Cumulative MAP exports from January to July reached 601,000 tons, down 49.4% year-on-year. After exports were relaxed in May, June–July volumes rose month-on-month, and the first batch of quotas was largely executed.

     
     

3. Outlook: Exports may see phased growth in Q3 (with quotas issued and international demand season arriving), but weak global demand and falling export prices will constrain volumes. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range (cost support limiting downside, weak demand limiting upside). Supported by high costs and the second batch of quotas, price declines will likely be limited.

V. Indian Media Warning: China’s Fertilizer Export Restrictions Impact India’s Agricultural Input Market

(1) Dependence Status

India shows high dependency on China for specialty fertilizers: 80% of supplies are directly imported from China, and another 15% are indirectly sourced through Chinese channels. The level of dependence continues to rise.

(2) China’s Control Measures and India’s Response

1. China’s Control: China usually applies non-tariff measures such as raising inspection standards and delaying customs clearance to regulate exports, rather than imposing outright bans.

   
   

2. India’s Response: Indian buyers accelerated bulk purchases during policy “windows,” while SFIA member enterprises (main buyers) coordinated global supply chain resources.

   
   

(3) Market Impact

1. Prices: Although China’s domestic reserves may alleviate seasonal pressures, the market widely anticipates significant fertilizer price increases. Earlier in the year, China’s fertilizer export restrictions had already triggered a nearly 40% surge in global fertilizer prices.

   
   

2. Supply Risks: September is the global peak season for specialty fertilizer consumption (drip irrigation for cash crops and intensive fertilization for high-value horticultural crops). The combination of seasonal demand peaks and tighter Chinese export controls means that even without major supply chain disruptions, farmers will face higher input costs. This will likely squeeze or structurally compress agricultural producers’ profit margins.

Conclusion

In August 2025, both global and domestic fertilizer markets presented a pattern of “localized stability and structural divergence.” Supply-demand dynamics, cost structures, policies, and geopolitical factors jointly shaped market trends. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Price Trends: Most categories remained stable. Ammonium sulfate prices were steady both internationally and domestically. Domestic potash showed slight adjustments. Sulfur and phosphate rock were supported by tight supply. Synthetic ammonia and MAP (monoammonium phosphate) were constrained by weak demand, showing either volatility or weakness. Price fluctuations appeared only in specific regions where supply-demand imbalances existed.

   
   

2. Supply-Demand Dynamics: Balance remained the key stabilizer. Ammonium sulfate stayed balanced due to sufficient inventories and steady consumption. Potash demand weakened as the autumn fertilizer season ended, but plant maintenance and low import inventories provided support. Phosphate fertilizers showed a divergence between sluggish domestic sales and relatively stronger exports (with DAP outperforming MAP). Costs provided a floor, while weak demand capped the upside.

Looking ahead, attention should remain on import arrivals and export policy developments.

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.