Overview of Global Potassium Fertilizer Production and Market Landscape in 2024

In 2024, the global potassium fertilizer industry witnessed multiple key changes amid price fluctuations, production capacity adjustments, and geopolitical influences. While the market stabilized in the first half of the year, falling costs and increased production pressured prices in the second half. According to the World Bank, fertilizer prices are projected to decline on average in 2025 and stabilize by 2026. Meanwhile, potassium fertilizer demand has grown steadily, reaching 38.8 million tons in 2024 and is expected to rise further to 40.9 million tons in 2025.

In terms of supply, data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) shows that global annual potassium fertilizer production in 2024 was approximately 48 million tons of K₂O equivalent, with total global reserves exceeding 4.8 billion tons. By country, Canada, Russia, and Belarus rank top three, while China come in fourth.，with Asia and South America remaining the main consumption regions.

📊 Top 10 Global Potassium Fertilizer Producers (2024, 10,000 metric tons of K₂O equivalent)

Rank	Country	Annual Production	Reserves
1	Canada	1500	110,000
2	Russia	900	92,000
3	Belarus	700	75,000
4	China	630	18,000
5	Germany	300	15,000
6	Israel	240	***
7	Jordan	180	***
8	Laos	150	100,000
9	Chile	75	10,000
10	United States	42	22,000

Note: Data source: USGS 2025 Mineral Commodity Summaries.

🧭 Market Landscape: Traditional Powers Strengthen Dominance, Emerging Producers Rise Rapidly

Under current geopolitical dynamics and export policy adjustments, the supply center of the potassium fertilizer industry is undergoing a new round of reshuffling. From traditional producers like Canada and Russia to fast-expanding regions like Laos and Belarus, the distribution of industrial power is evolving profoundly.

🇨🇦 Canada: The World’s Largest Producer Faces U.S. Tariff Challenges

Canada’s potassium fertilizer production reached 15 million tons in 2024, an increase of over 11% from 2023, maintaining its global leading position. Production is concentrated in Saskatchewan, dominated by global giants Nutrien and Mosaic, with Mosaic’s Esterhazy K3 mine capable of 8 million tons annual capacity.Canada is the primary source of U.S. potassium fertilizer imports, accounting for 79% of U.S. imports in 2024. However, supply chain stability has been challenged by U.S. With the U.S. announcing a 25 percent tariff on Canadian potash. Additionally, BHP’s Jansen project is expected to start production in 2026 and double capacity within a decade.

🇷🇺 Russia: Stable Production Under Sanctions, Maintains Global Supply Influence

Russia produced 9 million tons of potassium fertilizer in 2024, unchanged from the previous year. Leading producer Uralkali operates 5 mines and 7 processing plants, contributing about 20% of global supply before 2022. Despite EU and U.S. sanctions and import quotas, Russia has maintained exports to ensure global food security.Russia imposed a 7% export tariff in 2023, valid until the end of 2024. The EU is reassessing its 2025 tariff policy to balance local fertilizer enterprises and global supply stability.

🇧🇾 Belarus: Strong Rebound, Largest Production Growth Globally

Belarus’ production surged to 7 million tons in 2024, a 56% increase from 4.5 million tons in the previous year—the highest growth rate among major producers. Leading enterprise Belaruskali owns 6 mines and 4 processing plants.Despite EU and U.S. sanctions and loss of the Klaipėda Port (Lithuania) export channel, Belarus has restored exports via Russian ports and China-Europe railways, approaching pre-2022 levels.

🇨🇳 China: Stable Production, Largest Global Consumer

China produced 6.3 million tons of potassium fertilizer in 2024, slightly higher than the previous year. Although ranking fourth globally in production, China is the world’s largest consumer, accounting for about 20% of global consumption, leading to long-term supply shortages.Resources are concentrated in Xinjiang and Qinghai, with Qinghai Salt Lake Potassium Fertilizer Company as the largest domestic producer. China relies heavily on potassium chloride imports, making its market vulnerable to international price and policy changes.

🇩🇪 Germany: Centuries of Mining Legacy, Balancing Technology and Resources

Germany produced 3 million tons of potassium fertilizer in 2024, up from 2.7 million tons in 2023. The country discovered the world’s first potassium mine in Saxony-Anhalt in 1856, boasting a deep mining history.Leading producer K+S operates 6 mines in 3 regions, with private enterprise DEUSA International also active. Germany retains significant influence in the European potassium fertilizer market.

🇮🇱 Israel: Dead Sea Resources Support Production, Limited Impact from Regional Tensions

Israel’s production remained at 2.4 million tons in 2024, steady within the 2–2.5 million tons range. Relying on Dead Sea resources, leading enterprise ICL Group is a global giant in potassium fertilizer and bromine production.Despite the turbulent situation, there is no panic price increase in the potash market. Israel and Jordan are jointly developing Dead Sea potash, with resource reserves approaching 2 billion tons of potassium chloride.

🇯🇴 Jordan: The Middle East’s Sole Supplier, Focus on Asian Markets

Jordan produced 1.8 million tons in 2024, operated by state-owned Arab Potash Company as the only potassium fertilizer producer in the Arab region. Like Israel, it relies on Dead Sea resources.Products are mainly exported to India and other Asian countries, securing a position in the South Asian market.

🇱🇦 Laos: A Rising Star with Rapid Capacity Expansion

Laos produced 1.5 million tons in 2024, unchanged from 2023 but far higher than 0.26 million tons in 2021. The country holds the world’s second-largest potassium fertilizer reserves (after Canada), reaching 1 billion tons.Represented by Asia Potash International, a Chinese-led enterprise and a key "Belt and Road" project. In March 2024, Laos-based Kaiyuan Laos began constructing its third potassium chloride plant, expected to double capacity to 2 million tons/year by the end of 2025.

🇨🇱 Chile: Decline in Traditional Production, Focus Shifts to Lithium

Chile’s production fell to 0.75 million tons in 2024, down from a peak of 1.2 million tons in 2018. Producer SQM, also a major global lithium supplier, has reduced potassium fertilizer scale.As South America is one of the fastest-growing potassium fertilizer consumption markets, Chile may attract renewed investment in the future.

🇺🇸 United States: Low Self-Sufficiency, Heavy Reliance on Imports

U.S. production reached 0.42 million tons in 2024, a 0.03 million ton increase year-on-year, far from meeting domestic demand. Production is concentrated in New Mexico and Utah, with sulfate of potash and potash magnesia accounting for 70%.Key enterprises include Intrepid Potash (the only U.S. potassium chloride producer) and Mosaic Company (also operating large mines in Canada).

As new mines in Laos, Russia, and other regions come online, the global potassium fertilizer capacity structure will continue to evolve. While traditional powers maintain dominance, emerging producers enhance their influence through capital investment and technology，quietly redrawing the global potassium fertilizer geopolitical map.

📈 Supply-Demand Trends and Industry Outlook: Price Pressure, Capacity Expansion Dominates Future Rhythm

In 2024, the global potassium fertilizer market adjusted amid supply-demand games and policy variables. Despite overall production growth, falling costs and increased food output have lowered price expectations, while investment and capacity expansion remain active.

🔄 Consumption Trends: Moderate Growth, Asia and South America as Main Drivers

• Global potassium fertilizer consumption reached 38.8 million tons in 2024 (USGS data);

  
  

• It is projected to increase to 40.9 million tons by 2025, with Asia (China, India) and South America (Brazil) maintaining high demand growth;

  
  

• As a fundamental nutrient, potassium fertilizer remains irreplaceable in high-input agriculture, driven by global compound fertilizer demand and planting structure adjustments.

  
  

💰 Price Forecast: Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Support

• The World Bank predicts continued price declines in 2025, with stabilization expected after 2026;

  
  

• Prices will remain significantly higher than the 2015–2019 level, though lower than the 2021–2022 peak;

  
  

• Sanctions, export restrictions, and logistics bottlenecks in key producing regions (e.g., limited Russian/Belarusian export channels) will support prices by reducing supply elasticity.

  
  

🔍 Investment Perspective: Cautious Optimism Among Global Miners

• Despite frequent price fluctuations in 2024, long-term supply-demand trends are positive;

  
  

• Many suspended potassium mine projects, such as BHP’s Jansen project, have restarted planning;

  
  

• Investors focus on policy stability, international transportation routes, and long-term procurement contract execution;

🧾 Product Summary and Investment Recommendations

As the potassium fertilizer industry enters a new capacity release cycle , geopolitical risk management, technological innovation, and environmental compliance have become core concerns for enterprises and investors.

🧭 Geopolitical Policies and Risk Factors

• Sanctions and export quotas: Russian/Belarusian exports remain policy-constrained, with continuing uncertainty in global trade channels;

  
  

• Transportation and logistics challenges: Port restrictions, railway capacity, and inland country channel construction remain shortcomings；

  
  

• Tariffs and trade barriers: U.S.-China and Canada-U.S. tariff policies may affect North American market stability.

  
  

📊 Investment Recommendations and Key Observations

Investment Dimension	Recommendations and Directions
Upstream Resource Layout	Prioritize emerging mining regions with large reserves and low costs (e.g., Laos, Ethiopia)
Downstream Matching Capacity	Enterprises with compound/liquid fertilizer solution capabilities will have advantages
Policy Sensitivity Management	Build multi-channel, multi-national export capabilities to address geopolitical emergencies and port restrictions
Environmental and Carbon Control	New mine investments should consider green entry thresholds; prioritize projects with water resource optimization and waste treatment capabilities
Technology and Logistics Integration	Companies with terminal distribution and digital supply chain management systems are more resilient and customer-sticky

🧭 Conclusion: Redrawing the Global Potassium Fertilizer Map

From the consolidation of established powers to the rise of new forces, from price fluctuation games to green development challenges, the global potassium fertilizer industry is undergoing a structural adjustment cycle. Only enterprises with forward-looking vision, industrial chain integration capabilities, and compliance execution can achieve long-term stable development in the global market.

Source: “Agrochemical Times”