Review of China’s Fertilizer Imports and Exports in 2025 and Outlook for the Global Phosphate Fertilizer Market in 2026

In 2025, China’s fertilizer imports and exports showed a clear pattern of strong growth in export volumes and values, alongside a slight decline in imports.

Urea exports recorded particularly sharp growth, while phosphate fertilizer exports continued to contract. Domestic policy priorities focused on securing internal supply had a profound impact on the global phosphate fertilizer market structure.

Looking ahead to 2026, the global phosphate fertilizer supply outlook is broadly positive, though challenges remain. Fertilizer consumption is expected to maintain moderate growth, and the global supply–demand balance is likely to gradually stabilize.

I. Key Data Analysis of China’s Fertilizer Imports and Exports in 2025

By the end of December 2025, China’s fertilizer trade showed a pattern of rapid export growth and marginally lower imports, with a clearly differentiated export structure and potassium chloride dominating imports.

(1) Exports: Growth in Both Volume and Value, with Urea as the Main Driver

From January to December 2025, China exported a total of 46.272 million tons of various fertilizers, representing a 44.0% year-on-year increase. Export value reached USD 13.755 billion, up 57.9% year on year, reflecting strong growth in both volume and prices.

In December alone, exports totaled 3.413 million tons, up 19.3% year on year, with export value at USD 819 million, an increase of 17.0%.

Performance varied significantly by product:

• Urea exports surged, with cumulative exports reaching 4.89 million tons, up 1,778.1% year on year, becoming the primary driver of overall export growth;

• Ammonium sulfate remained the largest export category, with cumulative exports of 21.36 million tons, up 24.7% year on year, maintaining steady growth;

• Phosphate fertilizer exports continued to contract: diammonium phosphate (DAP) exports totaled 3.48 million tons, down 23.8% year on year, while monoammonium phosphate (MAP) exports reached 1.88 million tons, down 6.3% year on year, extending the downward trend.

(2) Imports: Slight Decline, with Potassium Chloride Dominating

From January to December 2025, China imported 14.009 million tons of various fertilizers, down 0.7% year on year. Import value totaled USD 4.822 billion, up 5.6% year on year, indicating higher import costs despite slightly lower volumes.In December, imports reached 1.577 million tons with a value of USD 575 million, and the average customs-cleared CIF price was USD 364.55 per ton.

Among major imported products:

• Potassium chloride (KCl) imports totaled 12.61 million tons, down only 0.1% year on year, accounting for more than 90% of total fertilizer imports and remaining the most critical imported fertilizer category;

• NPK compound fertilizers recorded cumulative imports of 1.17 million tons, down 4.5% year on year, reflecting a modest contraction.

II. China’s Phosphate Fertilizer Export Landscape: Structural Decline Reshaping the Global Market

As the world’s largest phosphate fertilizer producer, China’s export policy orientation has had a profound influence on the global market. A sustained reduction in export volumes has become the new norm, with global supply gaps increasingly filled by other producing countries.

(1) Clear Downward Trend in Exports, with Policy Prioritizing Domestic Supply

China’s phosphate fertilizer exports have declined steadily from their peak a decade ago. In 2015, exports were approximately 11 million tons, while by 2025 export volumes had fallen by about half.

In December 2025, industry consensus indicated that no phosphate fertilizer exports would be arranged before August 2026, a move that could intensify short-term volatility in the global market.

The core driver behind this trend is domestic policy prioritizing fertilizer supply security for Chinese farmers. To ensure stable domestic availability, export volumes have been deliberately curtailed.

This policy direction suggests that China’s phosphate fertilizer exports are unlikely to return to historical highs, serving as a key signal of structural adjustment in the global phosphate fertilizer market.

(2) Capacity Expansion in Other Countries Easing Supply Gaps

Following China’s export reductions, other producing countries have gradually expanded capacity to fill the market gap.Saudi Arabia has increased phosphate fertilizer capacity by 3 million tons, while Morocco has added approximately 2.7 million tons, making them the primary contributors to global supply growth.

In addition, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, and other countries are advancing smaller-scale expansion projects, leading to a more diversified global phosphate fertilizer supply structure.

III. Global Phosphate Fertilizer Outlook for 2026: Improving Supply Amid Challenges and Opportunities

The global phosphate fertilizer market in 2026 will face a complex environment, characterized by both positive signals from expanding supply and multiple constraints related to policy and demand. Overall prices are expected to remain relatively stable, with supply–demand fundamentals gradually moving toward balance.

(1) Key Challenges: Three Major Pressures on the Market

The global phosphate fertilizer market currently faces three major challenges:

1. U.S. countervailing duty policies, which continue to disrupt global trade flows;

   
   

2. Ongoing reductions in China’s phosphate fertilizer exports, limiting the availability of reliable export supply sources;

   
   

3. A contraction in global phosphate fertilizer demand, which, although less severe than initially expected, still exerts downward pressure on the market.

   
   

In addition, phosphate fertilizer affordability reached historical lows in 2025, a situation that may persist into 2026.

(2) Positive Signals: Favorable Supply Outlook and Continued Capacity Growth

According to the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), the global phosphate fertilizer supply outlook remains positive.

In 2024, global phosphoric acid production increased by 5% year on year, reaching a record high of 89.6 million tons. Total production of monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) also rose by 5% year on year, reaching 67.2 million tons, the second-highest annual output since 2020. China and Morocco were the main contributors to this growth, with production increases of 11% and 4%, respectively.

Over the longer term, global phosphoric acid capacity is expected to continue expanding. Africa, West Asia, and East Asia are likely to be the main drivers of capacity growth, with most new projects led by existing producers in Morocco and Saudi Arabia, alongside smaller-scale expansions in countries such as Jordan and Egypt.

(3) Global Fertilizer Consumption: Moderate Growth and Gradual Recovery

IFA data show that global fertilizer consumption rebounded to a historical high in 2024, increasing by 17 million tons from the 2022 low and exceeding the 2020 peak by 4 million tons.

Specifically, global consumption of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers reached 198 million tons in 2023, up 4.5% year on year, and increased by a further 4.4% in 2024 to 206 million tons.

The recovery in fertilizer use was primarily driven by a significant decline in fertilizer prices from their mid-2022 peak, reversing the contraction in application caused by earlier high prices.

Looking ahead to 2025–2029, global fertilizer consumption is expected to continue growing at a slower pace, with an average annual growth rate of 1–2%. By 2029, total fertilizer use is projected to reach 224 million tons, an increase of 18 million tons compared with 2024, indicating a gradual return to a more stable growth phase.

IV. Conclusion

The defining characteristics of China’s fertilizer trade in 2025 were divergent export performance and stable-to-lower imports, with reduced phosphate fertilizer exports emerging as a key factor reshaping the global market.

While the global phosphate fertilizer market in 2026 will continue to face multiple challenges, ongoing capacity expansion is expected to support a favorable supply outlook, and prices are likely to remain relatively stable. Meanwhile, the moderate recovery in global fertilizer consumption provides a fundamental underpinning for phosphate fertilizer demand.

Going forward, close attention should be paid to China’s industry policy developments. If proposals to suspend phosphate fertilizer exports until August 2026 are implemented, they could cause short-term disruptions to global supply rhythms. At the same time, the pace of global capacity releases and growth in demand for refined phosphoric acid products will be critical factors in identifying emerging structural opportunities in the market.

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