Global Fertilizer Prices Expected to Rise in 2025, Affordability Declines

Recently, the global fertilizer market has experienced significant upward price pressure in 2025 due to a combination of factors, leading to a noticeable decline in affordability.

Price Trends and Regional Dynamics

At the beginning of 2025, prices for many fertilizer types surged rapidly. In China's potash market, according to a financial report on February 26, prices began rising in early February and reached RMB 3,121/ton ($428/ton) on the 24th—a weekly increase of 10.05% and a 24.05% rise since the start of the year. This is primarily driven by robust spring planting demand in China, active stockpiling by compound fertilizer producers, global potash supply tightness, domestic maintenance shutdowns, and limited imports, all of which have intensified the supply-demand imbalance.

The phosphate market is under similar pressure. Since late 2024, global phosphate prices have risen due to reduced supply from China and competitive global demand. Off-season restocking in India, a demand shift in Ethiopia, and recovering demand in Latin America have pushed up U.S. diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices. The phosphate affordability index turned negative in the 12-month average as of August 2024 and is expected to remain so at least through August 2025. In Q1 2025, the average phosphate price was 27% higher than the average of the past decade.

Potash and Urea Supply Disruptions

The potash supply chain continues to face disruptions. Belarusian Potash Company began mine projects in January, reducing first-half exports by 1 million tons. Russian producer Uralkali plans maintenance in Q2, cutting production by 300,000 tons/year and increasing domestic allocation. U.S. tariff uncertainty toward Canada has also contributed to rising potash prices.

Meanwhile, global markets have been closely watching India’s urea procurement. In 2024, Indian imports declined by 24% compared to 2023. Globally, urea prices rose by 13% in Q1 2025. In January 2025, the U.S. increased urea imports by 14% to support projected corn planting acreage.

China is expected to reenter the international market after the spring application season.

Affordability Index and Consumption Outlook

Affordability has declined sharply: the nutrient affordability index dropped to 0.82 in March—the lowest since November 2022. Early in 2025, the fertilizer price index climbed due to firm urea prices. Although crop prices briefly rose, they failed to offset the fertilizer price hikes. In March, trade tensions pushed agricultural commodity prices downward, further weakening fertilizer affordability.

According to the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), global fertilizer consumption is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2025 to 205 million tons, with potash demand reaching 41 million tons. East Asia alone is expected to contribute 50% of the global demand increase, adding further upward pressure on prices.

Structural and Policy Challenges

Since 2021, rising raw material costs, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have led to sustained volatility in fertilizer prices. In 2025, production adjustments and shifting trade policies are compounding the upward trend. Looking ahead, energy costs and geopolitical developments remain key variables. Import-reliant regions must consider strategic measures to secure stable supply.