Global Fertilizer Market Update: Kazakhstan’s Capacity Decline, Vietnam’s Trade Surge, China’s Export Policy Adjustment…

🇰🇿 Kazakhstan’s Fertilizer Output Continues to Decline, Lowest Application Rate in Central Asia and the Eurasian Union

In 2024, Kazakhstan’s mineral and chemical fertilizer production dropped by 9.3% year-on-year to 367,500 tons. Nitrogen fertilizer output reached 345,500 tons (down 11.4%), while phosphate fertilizer rose 47.1% to 22,000 tons. The country's nitrogen fertilizer import dependence stood at 57.8%, with annual imports reaching 4.723 million tons (up 7.3%). Phosphate fertilizer was largely self-sufficient, with only 1.2% imported. Exports surged, with nitrogen fertilizer doubling to 214,400 tons, and phosphate fertilizer up 6.7% to 5,300 tons.

Domestically, fertilizer consumption diverged: nitrogen sales declined for the second consecutive year to 60,300 tons in 2024 (down 16.6%), while phosphate sales rose 66.1% to 17,100 tons—still far below the 2017–2022 annual average of 133,600–196,400 tons.

According to FAO data, Kazakhstan’s fertilizer application rates are the lowest in Central Asia and the Eurasian Economic Union. In 2022, nitrogen and phosphate usage per hectare fell to 2.4 kg and 1.33 kg, respectively—far behind Uzbekistan (187.24 kg N, 12.1 kg P) and Russia (17.63 kg N, 5.91 kg P). The decline continued in early 2025, with Jan–Feb nitrogen fertilizer output at 71,600 tons (down 3.4%) and phosphate at 3,100 tons (a drop of over two-thirds).

🇯🇴 Jordan: Fertilizer Exports Surge 20.9% in Q1 2025, Potash Up, Phosphates Down

In Q1 2025, fertilizers became Jordan’s top export growth driver. Exports reached JOD 243 million, a 20.9% increase from JOD 201 million in Q1 2024. Potash exports rose 2.6% to JOD 120 million (Q1 2024: JOD 117 million), while phosphate exports fell 8.2% to JOD 112 million (Q1 2024: JOD 122 million). Fertilizers remained Jordan’s top export commodity.

🇨🇳 China: Phosphate Export Policy Adjusted—Quota Cut but CIQ Speeds Up

China adjusted its phosphate fertilizer export policies for 2025:

1. Phased Export System:

   
   

   • Phase 1: Customs declaration must be completed by October 15; main export window: May–September.

     
     

   • Phase 2: To be arranged based on Phase 1 performance.

     
     

2. CIQ Inspection Optimization:

   
   

   • As of mid-May, the legal inspection period has been shortened to ~15 days, significantly faster than before.

     
     

3. Quota Reduction:

   
   

   • The total export quota for phosphate fertilizers has been reduced compared to 2024.

🇨🇳 Ammonium Chloride: Oversupply Intensifies Amid Policy Tightening

Since 2024, more than 3 million tons of new alkali-linked capacity has been added in China, expanding ammonium chloride production. From Jan–Apr 2025, soda ash output rose 6.9% YoY, driven by dual-alkali plants, implying continued growth in ammonium chloride supply.

However, demand shows dual contraction:

1. Compound Fertilizer Demand Declines:

   
   

   • Formulations are increasingly high-nitrogen and high-content, with urea gradually replacing ammonium chloride in blends.

     
     

2. Agricultural Channel Fails:

   
   

   • Although ammonium chloride (25% N) outperforms ammonium bicarbonate (17%) and ammonium sulfate (20%) in nitrogen content and is priced at only 25% of urea, chloride ion soil damage prevents large-scale adoption.

     
     

Policy control:

• Exports surged to 760,000 tons in Jan–Apr 2025 (up 260,000 tons YoY), but compound fertilizer exports were reportedly halted, and ammonium chloride inspections now exceed 15 days, narrowing the export window.

  
  

Market Status:

• Domestic oversupply pressure continues to mount due to reduced compound fertilizer exports and prolonged CIQ inspections.

🇻🇳 Vietnam Emerges as Fertilizer Exporter, Japan Imports Soar 324%

Driven by global supply chain shifts and trade policies, Vietnam has transitioned from fertilizer consumer to exporter. In 2024, fertilizer exports reached nearly 1.7 million tons, worth $719 million—up 12% and 9% YoY, respectively. Annual production is 8–10 million tons, mainly NPK (4 million t/y), urea (3 million t/y), and phosphate (2.5 million t/y). Vietnam is fully dependent on imports for ammonium nitrate and imports potassium chloride for potash production.

Key export markets:

Cambodia (34%), South Korea (13%), and the Philippines (6%).

From Jan–Nov 2024, Japan imported $12.3 million worth of fertilizers from Vietnam—a 324% surge—mainly due to China’s 2023–2024 export restrictions and Japan's diversification efforts. Organic fertilizer demand also contributed significantly.

Government Support & Upgrades:

• Vietnam is lowering export taxes (e.g., to 0% for DAP and compound fertilizers) and promoting slow-release technologies to meet international sustainability standards, especially in the Japanese market.

Corporate Action:

• PetroVietnam Ca Mau Fertilizer JSC: Developing eco-friendly high-tech fertilizers tailored for strict Australia/New Zealand standards, while improving product quality for the Americas.

• PetroVietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals Corp. signed a supply deal with a Japanese firm for 20,000 tons of urea annually.

Vietnam’s fertilizer industry is well-positioned for expansion, driven by rising demand in Japan and Asia and growing focus on organic and sustainable farming.

Urea Trade, Phosphate Supply Tightens, and China–India Potash Talks Delayed

1. Urea Market: Market fluctuation and Chinese Export Restrictions

   
   

   • India launched a tender for 1.5 million tons of urea (deadline: June 12). Due to China’s export control measures, Chinese-origin products may be excluded. Urea exports from China require a 60-day CIQ inspection, with first arrivals expected in July.

     
     

   • Current FOB base prices:

     
     

     • Prilled urea: $360/ton

     
     

     • Granular urea: $370/ton

     
     

   • Russian exporters to pivot toward Brazil and Argentina.

     
     

   • Algeria and Nigeria seized the opportunity to supply Europe.

     
     

   • Latest international price offers:

     
     

     • SABIC (Saudi Arabia) to India: $385/ton FOB

     
     

     • Egypt: $405/ton FOB (weak demand)

     
     

     • Iran to Brazil: $335–338/ton FOB

     
     

     • U.S. NOLA price dropped to $420/short ton (~$413/ton CFR)

     
     

2. Phosphates: Global Tightness as Chinese Exports Plunge

   
   

   • China’s DAP/MAP exports from Jan–Apr totaled only 155,000 tons, down 82% YoY—the lowest volume in 23 years.

     
     

   • Export quota for May–September: 3–3.5 million tons (about half of last year’s volume).

     
     

   • CIQ certificates valid through October 15.

     
     

   • FOB prices:

     
     

     • Current: $700–720/ton

     
     

     • Producer target: $730–750/ton

     
     

   • No major new transactions in Brazil or India; further price increases expected.

     
     

3. Potash: China–India Contract Talks Delayed, Market Awaits Clarity

   
   

   • India’s IPL and other importers are negotiating contracts at ~$349/ton CFR.

     
     

   • A supplier price gap of $5–10/ton is delaying agreement.

   
   

   • Indian port inventories have declined to 170,000 tons, while the Kharif planting season approaches.

     
     

   • In China, post-spring demand has faded; no urgency to settle new contracts.

     
     

   • In April, the Chinese government released 1.1 million tons of KCl to stabilize domestic prices.

     
     

   • Maize-season fertilizer demand will begin in July, but potash demand is not urgent.

     
     

   • Regional pricing:

     
     

     • Southeast Asia (standard MOP): ~$345/ton CFR

     
     

     • Brazil: $360–370/ton CFR (no confirmed trades yet, pending Indian contracts)

     
     

4. Ammonia: Mosaic’s Discount Deal Adds to Downward Pressure

   
   

   • Mosaic purchased 25,000 tons of ammonia at $370/ton CFR, a $45 discount from May’s settlement price.

     
     

   • Long-haul shipments from the Middle East to Europe and the Americas are weighing down spot market sentiment.

     
     

   • Outlook remains bearish.

   
   

Conclusion: Supply Rebalancing Amid Policy Shifts and Regional Divergence

The global fertilizer market in early 2025 is characterized by fragmented trends and mounting policy-driven complexity. On the supply side, major producers such as China are tightening export controls, leading to global shortages in key nutrients like phosphates and increasing uncertainty in international tenders.

Emerging players such as Vietnam are accelerating their presence in global trade through policy incentives and production upgrades, while countries like Kazakhstan face persistent structural limitations in domestic application and capacity utilization.

In the potash sector, ongoing contract negotiations between India and global suppliers are causing a wait-and-see attitude across regions, with delayed settlements weighing on volumes and pricing. Simultaneously, oversupply pressures—especially in China’s ammonium chloride and global ammonia markets—are building against a backdrop of demand softness and logistical bottlenecks.

As trade flows recalibrate and environmental compliance becomes increasingly stringent, market participants will need to remain agile. Success in this evolving environment depends on balancing regulatory navigation, proactive supply chain planning, and responsive pricing strategies.