China's Sulfur Market Dynamics and Its Impact on Downstream Industries

Recently, China's sulfur market has continued to maintain a high-level consolidation trend, with large price fluctuations, forming a strong cost support for downstream industries such as phosphate fertilizers.

At the same time, the high sulfur price has also led to continued price fluctuations in related industrial chains such as phosphorus chemical industry and synthetic ammonia.

The following is an analysis of sulfur and its related markets:

Sulfur Market: High-level price fluctuations, intensified supply and demand game

Port inventory and market performance

As of March 13, the total sulfur inventory of major ports in China was about 1.87 million tons, up 20,000 tons from last week, and the overall inventory did not change much. Affected by the firm international foreign prices and the reluctance of holders to sell, it is difficult to find low-priced sources in the domestic market, and the overall quotation is still high. For example:

Yangtze River Port: The transaction price is around 2,350 yuan/ton, the market supply is tight, and merchants are reluctant to sell.

Puguang Wanzhou: The shipping price rose by 180 yuan to 2,320 yuan/ton.

Shandong local refineries: The market supply and demand are tight, and the quotation range of liquid sulfur is 2,520-2,650 yuan/ton.

At present, there are large differences between buyers and sellers in the domestic sulfur market, and terminal demand is slightly weak. The future market trend still needs to pay attention to policy adjustments and the start-up of downstream factories.

Sulfuric Acid Market: Prices continue to rise, and cost support is strong

Affected by the high sulfur prices, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose overall this week:

Yunnan region: affected by the supply contraction, the market price rose.

Guangdong and Guangxi and surrounding areas: acid plants are under maintenance, inventory is low, pushing prices up.

Central China: some units are under maintenance, supply is shrinking, and prices are rising. At present, the ex-factory price of 98% smelting acid in Hubei is 610-660 yuan/ton.

Due to the high sulfur cost and the stable demand for phosphate fertilizers, it is expected that sulfuric acid prices will remain high in the short term.

Phosphate Ore Market: Purchase and sale game, obvious differentiation between north and south

Price and supply situation

At present, the phosphate rock market maintains horizontal consolidation, phosphate ammonium enterprises operate at a stable load, and a new round of phosphate ore procurement has not yet started on a large scale. The market trends in the north and south regions are somewhat differentiated:

In Mabian, Sichuan: the transaction price of 25% high-magnesium phosphate ore is 700-730 yuan/ton, and the 22% grade is 530-540 yuan/ton.

In Hubei: the tax-inclusive price of 28% grade ship plate is 980-1000 yuan/ton, and the 25% high-magnesium phosphate ore is 854 yuan/ton.

In Weng'an, Guizhou: the price of 28% grade car plate is 970 yuan/ton, and the price of 31% phosphorus concentrate is 1050 yuan/ton.

In the northern market: the transaction price of 32-33% grade is 870-920 yuan/ton, and the price has risen slightly.

Imported Phosphate Ore

Chinese companies remain cautious about imported phosphate ore, and the cumulative import of phosphate ore from January to December 2024 is 2.0661 million tons. Among them:

Egypt: 26-27% grade, import price 80-90 US dollars/ton (CFR).

Jordan: The price is relatively high, about US$100/ton (CFR).

December imports: 315,700 tons of phosphate rock, with an average import price of US$101/ton.

As the export policy of phosphate fertilizer has not yet been determined, enterprises are cautious in purchasing imported phosphate rock, and the market is still in the game stage.

Synthetic Ammonia Market: Prices are rising, and regional differences are significant

At present, the synthetic ammonia market fluctuated upward. Due to the maintenance of some units in the northern market, the supply contraction led to price increases, which led to an improvement in the southern market atmosphere.

The phosphate fertilizer market is currently in the spring plowing and fertilizer preparation stage, with stable demand, which provides certain support for synthetic ammonia.

In the short term, the synthetic ammonia market may maintain a volatile trend, but due to the limitation of transportation radius, there are still certain differences in prices in various regions.

Phosphate Fertilizer Market: High-level consolidation, wait-and-see sentiment is strengthened

Driven by the rise in sulfur prices, the cost of phosphate ammonium continues to rise, and the price this week is still showing a slight upward trend:

Hubei 55% powdered ammonium: 3350-3400 yuan/ton, but downstream purchases are cautious and transactions are weak.

73% industrial ammonium phosphate: mainstream quotation is 6,400 yuan/ton, and most companies mainly execute pending orders.

Hubei 64% granular diammonium phosphate: ex-factory price is 3,700-3,800 yuan/ton, and some companies sell 57% diammonium phosphate in bundles.

As the export policy is still unclear, China's ammonium phosphate market is still dominated by domestic demand, some companies have suspended quotations, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood.

Summary and market outlook

✅Sulfur market: 

Prices fluctuate at high levels, supply and demand game is fierce, and attention should be paid to policy regulation risks.

✅Sulfuric acid market:

Affected by the high price of sulfur, it maintains high operation, and regional supply differences are obvious.

✅Phosphate ore market: 

The market trends in the north and south are differentiated, corporate procurement has not yet started on a large scale, and the import market is cautious.

✅Synthetic ammonia market:

 Supply contraction drives prices up, and the short-term trend remains volatile.

✅Phosphate compound fertilizer market:

Affected by the increase in sulfur costs, prices are high, but downstream procurement tends to be cautious, and corporate wait-and-see sentiment is strengthened.

✅Phosphate fertilizer export policy: 

The quota will be reduced in 2024, and exports are still subject to policy regulation. The market needs to wait for further guidance.

The current market is still affected by sulfur price fluctuations and policy uncertainties. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in ammonium phosphate costs, corporate order signing and downstream demand, and closely follow the subsequent policy adjustments in March.