China Phosphate Fertilizer, Potash Fertilizer, and Raw Material Market Analysis (Jan–Feb 2025)
- fernando chen
- Apr 1
- 4 min read
At the beginning of 2025, China's phosphate fertilizer, potash and its key raw materials market under the influence of multiple factors both inside and outside of the complex situation of structural differentiation, weak demand and cost game coexist.
Phosphate fertilizer products in emerging markets to maintain a certain degree of resilience, but the overall external demand is still not a full recovery; the domestic market in the high cost and downstream wait-and-see mood to maintain the shock operation.
Potash fertilizer: the national reserve auction price adjustment superimposed on the pace of import changes, making the market trading heat cooling, prices continue to consolidate.
At the same time, raw materials such as phosphate rock, sulfur, sulfuric acid and ammonia and other products in the supply and demand divergence in the significant regional differences.
This article will be through the export structure, market prices and supply and demand dynamics of the three dimensions, a comprehensive compendium of the current stage of China's fertilizer market operating situation, and the market trend of rational judgment.
Phosphate Fertilizer Market: Export Divergence, Cost Pressure Transmission Blocked
1. Export Performance
Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP):Export volume reached 32,400 tons in Jan–Feb, mainly to Brazil, Indonesia, and the UAE.Main exporting provinces: Hubei (10,000 tons), Sichuan (6,843 tons), Tianjin (6,696 tons).
Diammonium Phosphate (DAP):Export volume was 65,900 tons, with Ethiopia accounting for nearly 42,000 tons (64%).Main exporting provinces: Guizhou (35,600 tons), Hubei (16,000 tons), Tianjin (10,000 tons).
Triple Superphosphate (TSP):Exports reached 131,700 tons, with strong demand from Pakistan (52,500 tons) and Indonesia (43,400 tons).Main exporting provinces: Yunnan (55,400 tons), Shanghai (52,500 tons).
2. Market Prices
MAP: 55% powdered product at RMB 3,350–3,400/ton; industrial-grade (73%) at RMB 6,450–6,500/ton.
DAP: 64% granular product ex-works at RMB 3,750–3,850/ton.
3. Market Outlook
With export policies still unclear, companies are cautious in taking large orders. Downstream buyers are hesitant, making near-term price increases unlikely.
Potash Fertilizer Market: Auction Price Cuts + Weak Demand = Price Stalemate
1. Potassium Chloride (MOP):
State Reserve Auction:
Government auction prices were cut by RMB 100/ton. However, red granular potash saw increased unsold volumes, while 60%–62% white potash attracted more aggressive bidding.
Port Prices:
62% white potash: RMB 3,250–3,270/ton (Lianyungang).
60% white potash from Laos: approx. RMB 3,100/ton.
Procurement Status:
Downstream buyers only source low-priced products. Traders are cautious and avoid stockpiling. Overall trading is subdued.
2. Potassium Sulfate (SOP):
Prices:52% powdered SOP at RMB 3,800–3,850/ton. High prices are hard to implement; most enterprises are fulfilling previous orders.
Challenges:Frequent availability of low-priced goods creates a standoff between buyers and sellers. Market confidence is weak.
3. Market Outlook:
Potash prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. Key focus will be on government auction activity and import volume changes.
Raw Materials Market: High production costs and transactional deadlock drive significant price divergence.
1. Phosphate Rock – Market Shows Relative Stability
Domestic Prices:Sichuan (25% P₂O₅): RMB 700–730/ton;Hubei (28% P₂O₅): RMB 980–1,000/ton;Guizhou (28% P₂O₅): RMB 900/ton.
Imports:Approx. 140,000 tons imported in Jan–Feb. Major suppliers include Egypt and Jordan. CIF price: USD 80–100/ton; the average import price was around $91.68/ton.
Market Conflict:High production costs for phosphate fertilizer plants are not accepted by downstream buyers, resulting in ongoing price negotiations between mines and buyers.
2. Sulfur – No Clear Recovery Yet
Stock & Prices:Port inventory: 1.85 million tons (down 40,000 tons from last week).Long River market price: around RMB 2,450/ton.
Outlook:With demand uncertain, prices are expected to remain volatile.
3. Sulfuric Acid – Still Running Strong
Price Differences by Region:Hubei: RMB 640–700/ton.Guangxi: due to plant maintenance, prices rose to RMB 780–840/ton.Prices are likely to remain high in the short term.
4. Synthetic Ammonia – Prices Falling
Price Decline:High inventory pressure led enterprises to lower prices.
Downstream buyers are cautious, and the market remains weak.
Market Sentiment & Trend Outlook
Overall Sentiment:
Phosphate fertilizer producers are dealing with both cost pressures and sales challenges, responding with structural adjustments, and export strategies.
The potash market is filled with hesitancy, as terminal demand remains weak and prices rely heavily on inventory and cost control.
In the raw material segment, pricing negotiations are intense—buyers are cautious, and sellers adjust prices frequently based on inventory and supply conditions.
Trend Forecasts:
Phosphate Fertilizer: If export restrictions ease, a short-term boost in demand is possible. However, rising terminal costs may limit upward price space.
Potash Fertilizer: Watch for government auction pace and import volumes. Short-term trends will remain volatile with structural opportunities.
Raw Materials: Prices for phosphate rock and sulfur remain influenced by marginal supply-demand shifts. Synthetic ammonia is expected to remain weak with regional price differences.
Summary
The overall market remains cautious. Producers focus on maintaining price stability and reducing inventory, while downstream buyers purchase in small volumes and at low prices.
Despite high raw material costs, weak demand makes price hikes difficult. Buyer-seller negotiations remain locked. Future attention should be paid to changes in export policy and import dynamics.
Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.
Comentários