Brief Analysis of China’s Fertilizer Import and Export in May 2025

Market Overview

According to data from China Customs, China’s fertilizer import and export performance in May 2025 showed a divergent trend of “rising volume but falling prices” for exports and “stabilized trend” for imports. The monthly export volume reached 3.144 million tons, representing a 21.3% year-on-year increase, while the export value was USD 713 million, down 4.4% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline in average export prices. On the import side, the volume stood at 1.114 million tons, with a total value of USD 364 million. The average declared CIF price was USD 326.39 per ton, reflecting relatively stable import levels.

These figures reflect a combination of factors including global shifts in fertilizer supply and demand, intensified price competition, and adjustments in domestic industrial policies.

This report, based on China Customs import and export data, analyzes the market performance of key fertilizer categories such as ammonium sulfate, potash, and phosphates, aiming to provide valuable insights for industry stakeholders.

I. Export Market

Cumulative Data from January to May

• Total export volume: 12.838 million tons, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 33.1%, indicating strong export growth momentum.

• Export value: USD 2.71 billion, up only 13.8% year-on-year, highlighting a pronounced trend of increasing volume but declining prices.

II. Import Market:

Cumulative Data from January to May

• Total import volume: 6.180 million tons, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9%.

• Import value: USD 1.922 billion, down 8.7% year-on-year.

• The decline in average import prices indicates a partial correction in international fertilizer prices.

III. Key Market Variables and Trends

Sustainability of Ammonium Sulfate Exports

China’s ammonium sulfate supply remains sufficient due to the steady development of the coking industry. Meanwhile, international demand for ammonium sulfate as a substitute nitrogen fertilizer continues to rise, providing solid support for its exports. However, if the current inverse price differential between domestic and overseas markets persists, it may weaken exporters’ enthusiasm and suppress future export growth momentum.

Potash Supply-Demand Imbalance

There is a significant gap between China’s current potash inventory and the target levels set by policy. On the international side, with production capacity gradually released from major producers such as Canada and Belarus, potash prices may show a volatile downward trend in the medium to long term.

Phosphate Fertilizer Export Dilemma

Phosphate rock mining in China is subject to a quota system, and the persistently high cost of sulfur further increases the export cost of phosphate fertilizers such as monoammonium phosphate. In the global market, Chinese phosphate fertilizers not only face cost disadvantages but are also under pressure from competitors such as Morocco and Russia, making it difficult to expand market share.

IV. Conclusion

From January to May 2025, China’s fertilizer import and export activities exhibited distinct structural characteristics. On the export side, growth was primarily driven by ammonium sulfate, while phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers remained sluggish due to multiple external and domestic constraints. On the import side, potash fertilizer dominated due to restocking needs, and the accelerated substitution of imported compound fertilizers reflects the enhanced capacity of China’s domestic industry to ensure supply security.

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.