April 2025 China Fertilizer Import-Export Analysis Brief

Market Foreword

As the 2025 spring ploughing enters its final stage, China's fertilizer market is at a critical juncture where raw material costs are high, policy regulation is intensified, and international market fluctuations are intertwined. From the "increase in volume and decrease in price" of ammonium sulfate exports to the "replenishment of inventory" of potash fertilizer imports, from the "cost dilemma" of phosphate fertilizer exports to the "accelerated substitution" of the compound fertilizer industry, each sub-sector presents complex structural characteristics.

At the international market level, the formal implementation of the EU carbon tariff (CBAM) brings compliance challenges, while the regional release of spring ploughing demand in Southeast Asia and Africa forms a game with the uncertainty of India's import policy; at the domestic policy level, the continuation of urea export restrictions and the implementation of the phosphate rock mining quota system, coupled with the increase in potash fertilizer inventory targets under the food security strategy, further intensified the dynamic adjustment of both supply and demand.

Based on the customs import and export data in April 2025, this report focuses on core varieties such as ammonium sulfate, potash fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, and compound fertilizer, and deeply analyzes market price trends, policy impact paths, and corporate response strategies, providing decision-making references for industry participants to capture market opportunities in the late spring ploughing period.

I. Export Market: Increase in Quantity and Decrease in Price, Ammonium Sulfate Drives Overall Growth

April Monthly Data:

Total Exports: 2.537 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, continuing the growth trend since the beginning of the year. However, export value fell 10.8% year-on-year to $560 million.

Core Varieties Performance:

• Ammonium Sulfate: Exports reached 1.28 million tons, a record monthly high. Driven by the release of China's coking industry capacity and restrictions on urea exports, demand for it as a nitrogen fertilizer substitute has surged. However, the international market price increase lags behind China, narrowing export profit margins.

• Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): Exports were 41,900 tons. Seasonal spring planting demand in Southeast Asia and Africa has driven month-on-month improvements, but high costs of phosphate rock and sulfur restrict export competitiveness.

• Urea/Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): Exports were only 2,300 tons and 2,400 tons, respectively. Urea is restricted by China's supply security policies, while DAP faces shrinking market share due to reduced imports from India and competition from Morocco and Russia.

January-April Cumulative Data:

Total Exports: 9.694 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 37.5%; export value was $1.997 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, with a clear trend of volume growth and price decline.

Structural Characteristics:

• Ammonium sulfate cumulative exports reached 5.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%, becoming the main export driver;

• Phosphate fertilizers (MAP + DAP) cumulative exports were 154,800 tons, a year-on-year decline of over 75%, hitting a five-year low for the same period;

Data at a Glance

Product	April Exports (10,000 tons)	Jan-Apr Cumulative Exports (10,000 tons)	Year-on-Year Change
Ammonium Sulfate	128	534	+32.7%
Monoammonium Phosphate	4.19	7.52	-75.7%
Potassium Chloride (Apr import)	111	466	+1.4%

II. Import Market: Potassium Fertilizer Restocking Demand Rises, Compound Fertilizer Import Substitution Accelerates

April Monthly Data:

Total Imports: 1.234 million tons, import value $391 million, CIF average price $316.86/ton. The decline in international potassium fertilizer prices has driven cost reductions.

Core Varieties Performance:

• Potassium Chloride: Imports reached 1.11 million tons. China's potassium fertilizer inventory has dropped to 1.9111 million tons, and food security policies have pushed the inventory target above 4 million tons, with significant restocking demand.

• NPK Compound Fertilizer: Imports were 100,000 tons. Overcapacity in China's compound fertilizer industry and enhanced self-supply capacity for high-end products have accelerated import substitution.

January-April Cumulative Data:

Total Imports: 5.066 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 0.9%; import value was $1.558 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.0%.

Structural Characteristics:

• Potassium chloride cumulative imports reached 4.66 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, ending the downward trend at the beginning of the year;

• NPK compound fertilizer cumulative imports were 320,000 tons, a year-on-year decline of 23.3%;

III. Key Market Variables and Trends

Sustainability of Ammonium Sulfate Exports：

Sufficient domestic supply (coking by-product) and growing international demand (agricultural nitrogen fertilizer gap) provide support, but price inversion between China and foreign markets may restrain future export momentum.

Potassium Fertilizer Supply-Demand Contradiction：

The gap between China's low inventory (1.9111 million tons) and policy inventory target (4 million tons) is expected to drive potassium chloride imports to over 1.2 million tons per month in Q2. International potassium fertilizer prices may trend downward in the medium-to-long term due to capacity releases in Canada and Belarus.

Phosphate Fertilizer Export Dilemma：

The quota system for phosphate rock mining and high sulfur costs have increased MAP export costs by 20% year-on-year. International market share is being squeezed by Morocco and Russia, with no significant recovery expected in the short term.

Policies and International Environment：

China: Urea export restrictions continue, and tight phosphate rock supply restricts phosphate fertilizer production;

International: The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) requires full lifecycle carbon emission data for fertilizer exports, potentially increasing compliance costs and forcing green industry transformation.

IV. Market Summary

In April 2025, China's fertilizer import-export showed a structural feature of "export dependence on ammonium sulfate, import focus on potassium fertilizer":

• Export Side: Ammonium sulfate maintains high growth due to cost and policy advantages, but phosphorus and nitrogen fertilizers remain sluggish due to multiple domestic and international factors;

• Import Side: Potassium fertilizer restocking demand has started, and compound fertilizer import substitution has accelerated, enhancing China's resource security capabilities.

In the future, attention should be paid to international potassium fertilizer price trends, phosphate rock policy adjustments, and the impact of EU CBAM implementation. It is recommended that enterprises optimize export product structures (e.g., increase water-soluble fertilizer proportion) and strengthen cost control to cope with market fluctuations.

In the second quarter of 2025, the fertilizer market will enter a critical period of "deep game between policy effects and market rules". Accurately grasping structural opportunities (such as high-concentration fertilizer exports and potash fertilizer replenishment cycles) and controlling systemic risks (such as poor transmission of phosphate fertilizer costs and international logistics fluctuations) will become the core competitiveness of enterprises in crossing the cycle.

Note: Due to the diversity of the information collected, the above information is for commercial reference only. Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.