Global Fertilizer Market in April: Volatility, Shifting Structures, and Emerging Trends

In April, the global fertilizer and petrochemical markets experienced significant volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions, logistics disruptions, shifting demand, and tightening regulations.

Tensions in the Middle East and unrest in the Red Sea region have severely disrupted maritime logistics, leading to extended shipping times, increased freight rates, and port congestion. As a result, supply for certain products tightened—such as insurance premiums for cargoes from the Persian Gulf doubling—creating mounting cost pressures. However, the supply of Iranian granular urea remained relatively stable, with FOB prices slightly declining. Meanwhile, the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) continues to reshape global trade by increasing demand for low-emission fertilizers and intensifying scrutiny of products from Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Suppliers are now under heightened pressure to demonstrate traceable and sustainable production chains.

Diverging Price Trends Across Fertilizers

Fertilizer prices showed varied trends across product categories:

• Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid: Prices surged due to strong Chinese demand and shipping interruptions in the Persian Gulf.

• DAP and NPK 15-15-15: Moderate price increases were observed due to seasonal procurement in India and West Africa, alongside Chinese export controls.

• Ammonia: Overcapacity led to slight FOB price declines in the Middle East, while Asian prices remained firm due to steady demand.

• Granular Urea: Mixed performance—FOB prices in Iran dipped slightly, while prices in Oman and the UAE rose due to Indian tenders and supply tightness. In Brazil, cautious purchasing and stockpiles softened CFR prices. Although China's anticipated export recovery may pressure prices, quota systems and CIQ inspection delays are expected to keep global supplies tight until late Q2.

Urea Market

Geopolitical risks, transport disruptions, and procurement strategies contributed to price disparities:

• Middle East Routes: Disruptions impacted FOB prices differently across regions.

• Iran: FOB prices were relatively stable (USD 331–350/ton from Bandar Abbas) due to port bottlenecks.

• Oman & UAE: Indian tenders tightened supplies, boosting prices.

• Vietnam: Prices rose with Indian procurement.

• Brazil: Prices softened due to slow spot activity and high inventories.

Ammonia Market

Oversupply, weak industrial demand, and limited spot trading pushed April prices slightly down:

• Middle East: FOB prices dropped from USD 320 to 315/ton due to higher supply from Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

• Asia: Stable CFR prices at USD 395/ton, supported by consistent demand in India, Thailand, and South Korea.

• Black Sea: FOB prices declined to USD 283/ton, impacted by low Mediterranean buying interest and shipping inefficiencies.

  
  

Freight volatility has widened the gap between FOB origin and CFR destination pricing, prompting Asian buyers to seek contractual guarantees.

Phosphate Market

Supply constraints and seasonal demand strengthened prices:

• China: Export controls reduced phosphate fertilizer availability, supporting international FOB prices.

• India: Stepped-up DAP procurement for the Kharif season pushed prices up, supported by subsidies and a favorable monsoon forecast.

• Southeast Asia: Growing demand increased regional supply pressure and prices.

• Global Freight: Red Sea disruptions led to cargo rerouting and higher transport costs, affecting CFR pricing.

DAP Market Snapshot

• Morocco: March FOB: USD 580–590/ton → April: USD 600–610/ton. Strong shipments from Jorf Lasfar and customized formulas strengthened competitiveness.

• China: March FOB: USD 570–580/ton → April: USD 590–600/ton. Export permit restrictions lowered FOB availability, pushing global prices upward.

• India (CFR): March: USD 635–645/ton → April: USD 650/ton. Large-scale purchases driven by Kharif preparations and public/private sector support.

Potash Market

Stabilized by long-term strategic contracts:

• Brazil (CFR): March: USD 355/ton → April: USD 360/ton. Soybean and corn planting supported steady demand, though ample Russian and Canadian supply capped price growth.

• Southeast Asia (CFR): Prices held at USD 375/ton across March and April. With Q1 demand largely met, restocking urgency was low.

• China (CFR): Stable at USD 325/ton. Regulatory interventions (subsidies, price caps) maintained domestic price stability and ensured spring agricultural supply.

Sulfuric Acid Market

Faced downward pressure from weak demand:

• South America: Sharp decline in Chilean mining demand.

• China & Southeast Asia: Industrial production failed to absorb inventories, and port oversupply in East China drove down prices.

• Rising freight costs could not offset sluggish demand, leading buyers to resist FOB increases and forcing sellers to lower offers. Southeast Asia remained relatively stable.

Freight & Logistics

Disruptions intensified in the Middle East and Indian Ocean corridors:

• Red Sea Crisis: Soaring freight and insurance costs, longer transit times due to rerouting, and vessel shortages disrupted trade flows.

• CFR pricing complexity increased, pushing buyers toward FOB terms to manage risk, while CFR negotiations became more difficult.

Regional Market Highlights

• Africa: Cost pressures rose. West African buyers diversified sourcing; North Africa strengthened its position in phosphate exports.

• India: Early procurement ensured supply, with a shift toward granular urea and increased support for biofertilizers.

• China: Strict export controls persisted; rumors of policy loosening caused market volatility. Domestic focus on green fertilizers stabilized the local market.

• Latin America: Maintained steady imports. Brazil advanced self-sufficiency initiatives and saw growing demand for specialty fertilizers, showing logistical resilience.

• Europe: Under CBAM pressure, procurement shifted toward low-carbon and traceable fertilizers. Demand rose for granular urea and specialty NPK blends, with compliance becoming central to purchasing.

Outlook for May

The market will likely remain volatile:

• Ongoing Middle East conflict will continue to disrupt supply chains.

• Indian demand is expected to support prices.

• Chinese export controls will maintain market tightness.

• Freight and insurance costs will stay elevated.

• Demand for sustainable products will grow.

Market participants must adopt proactive procurement plans, diversify supply chains, manage freight risks, and explore sustainable fertilizer solutions to meet challenges and seize emerging opportunities.