Global Fertilizer Market Update: India's DAP Import Price Hits $810, UK Stages Tariff Hikes on Belarus Nitrogen, Vietnam's May Fertilizer Imports Surge

Global Fertilizer Market Dynamics Continue to Intertwine with Geopolitical Policy Shifts

India faces a surge in import prices due to a sharp decline in DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) stocks, while the UK tightens nitrogen fertilizer imports from Belarus through a phased tariff policy. Vietnam, amid rising demand, is increasingly reliant on Chinese supply, and Myanmar is ensuring agricultural input availability by expanding import licenses.

These developments not only highlight the global fertilizer supply chain’s sensitivity to geopolitical tensions, but also underscore each country’s policy logic in safeguarding agricultural inputs amid price volatility.

India's DAP Import Price Soars to $810/ton

Shrinking Stockpiles and Import Dependence

As of June 1, 2025, India’s diammonium phosphate (DAP) inventories dropped to 1.24 million tons, down from 2.16 million tons in the same period of 2024 and nearly halved compared to 3.32 million tons in 2023. With an import dependency close to 100%, over half of India’s DAP consumption relies on finished product imports, while the remainder comes from domestically processed imported raw materials.

In the 2023–24 fiscal year, India imported 2.29 million tons of DAP from China. This figure plunged to 840,000 tons in 2024–25, with no imports from China so far this year. India has instead turned to suppliers in Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jordan, and Russia.

Price Surge and Market Impact

• Rising Import Costs: In June, India signed an import deal with Jordan at $781.5/ton CFR, over 50% higher than the previous $515–525/ton level. Saudi Arabia’s SABIC has quoted $810/ton, nearing the historic highs of $900–1,000/ton seen in 2022. Phosphoric acid prices have also surged from $1,055/ton in Q1 2025 to $1,258/ton for Q3.

• Increased Farmer Burden: Although fertilizer companies are expected to cap 50-kg DAP bag prices at INR 1,350 per government guidance, product shortages have pushed black market prices to INR 1,700–1,800/bag. While the government has pledged to crack down on illegal sales, companies blame inefficiencies in the distribution network.

Supply-Demand Imbalance and Industry Response

• Declining Consumption and Substitution Trends: Reduced imports have led to a drop in DAP consumption from 10.81 million tons in 2023–24 to 9.28 million tons in 2024–25. Sales of complex fertilizers (containing sulfur and phosphates) have increased as substitutes, though they offer lower phosphate content and generally come at a higher price than DAP.

• Policy and Industry Measures: The government has announced it will compensate fertilizer companies for elevated import costs, while companies are responding by slowing down import volumes. The industry urges adaptation to constrained supply, but farmer acceptance remains uncertain, and the government has yet to define a long-term policy stance.

Supply Chain Shift and Potential Risks

India’s import pivot away from China toward the MENA region brings its own risks. Long-term contracts secure quantities but leave pricing tied to global fluctuations. The current situation bears a strong resemblance to the 2022 price crisis. The ongoing rise in DAP costs is increasing the government’s subsidy burden and creating pressure on agricultural inputs ahead of the upcoming Kharif planting season.

UK to Gradually Increase Import Tariffs on Belarusian Nitrogen Fertilizers

The UK Department for Business and Trade (DBT) has announced a new phased tariff policy targeting nitrogen fertilizers from Belarus and Russia, revoking their Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) status and encouraging diversification in the UK’s fertilizer import supply chains.

The new measures are as follows:

Phased Tariff Increase Plan

• July 18, 2025 – June 30, 2026: An additional 10% tariff will be imposed on nitrogen-containing mineral and chemical fertilizers, including urea.

  
  

• July 1, 2026 – June 30, 2027: The tariff will increase to 20%.

  
  

• From July 1, 2027 onward: The tariff will rise further to 35%.

  
  

Background: Previous UK Trade Restrictions on Russian and Belarusian Fertilizers

• March 2022: A 35% tariff was imposed on imports of animal- and plant-based fertilizers, phosphates, potash, and compound fertilizers from Belarus and Russia.

  
  

• July 2022: The UK banned imports of most Russian and Belarusian fertilizer products, except caprolactam.

  
  

This tariff policy aims to gradually reduce the competitiveness of Russian and Belarusian fertilizers in the UK market, while providing a transition period for domestic importers to restructure their supply chains toward alternative sources.

Vietnam’s Fertilizer Imports Up 9.64% MoM in May 2025

Import Value and Growth Trend

According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, Vietnam’s fertilizer imports reached $173.9 million in May 2025, marking a significant 9.64% increase compared to April. The cumulative import value from January to May stood at $749.49 million.

Performance of Major Supplier Countries

• China Leads the Growth:

  Fertilizer imports from China in May amounted to $64.08 million, representing a sharp 31.10% month-on-month increase, and accounting for 34.28% of total imports so far this year—firmly maintaining China’s position as Vietnam’s top supplier.

  
  

• Slight Decline from Russia and Laos:

  Imports from Russia and Laos declined by 7.26% and 6.15%, respectively, yet both remain among Vietnam’s key fertilizer sources.

  
  

Exceptional Growth and Emerging Supply Sources

• Explosive Growth from Canada and the Philippines:

  Imports from Canada surged 16,104.40% MoM to $11.09 million, and from the Philippines by 2,161.40% to $4.07 million, likely reflecting one-off bulk shipments.

  
  

• New Sources Emerge:

  Belarus entered Vietnam’s market for the first time in May with $8.49 million in fertilizer exports. Imports from Taiwan and Norway rose 147.86% and 63.23%, respectively, compared to April.

  
  

Decline Among Other Traditional Suppliers

• Imports from South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the United States dropped significantly—by 67.51%, 58.54%, 42.85%, and 41.81%, respectively.

Market Summary

The growth in May imports reflects Vietnam’s steadily rising fertilizer demand. While imports from several countries showed volatility, the market continues to be anchored by stable Chinese supply, and further boosted by emerging or rebounding sources such as Canada, the Philippines, and Belarus.

Myanmar to Issue Import Licenses for 670,000 Tons of Fertilizer in Q1 FY2025–2026 to Strengthen Input Supply Oversight

Myanmar’s Committee for the Procurement and Distribution of Urea Fertilizer has proposed issuing import licenses for 676,055.06 metric tons of fertilizer and 11,024.1 metric tons of pesticides during the first quarter (April to June) of fiscal year 2025–2026, to ensure adequate input supply for the monsoon paddy planting season.

The plan was announced by U Hla Moe, Minister of Cooperatives and Rural Development, at a working meeting held on June 26. The Ministry of Commerce has approved the related import applications, and the committee will be responsible for screening and recommending qualified importers.

Regulatory Measures and Implementation Requirements

• Progress Monitoring:

  In response to several companies failing to fulfill import quotas in the previous year, authorities will supervise licensed enterprises to expedite the import of agricultural inputs and are considering penalties for import delays.

  
  

• Price Regulation:

  On June 30, 2025, the committee will set reference prices for fertilizers to counteract global price increases and prevent regional price manipulation. All states are required to determine local pricing based on Yangon reference prices, transportation costs, and reasonable profit margins.

  
  

Industry Coordination and Market Oversight

• The Myanmar Fertilizer, Seed and Pesticide Entrepreneurs Association (MFSPEA) is tasked with:

  
  

  • Ensuring members comply with industry regulations,

    
    

  • Submitting monthly operational reports

    
    

  • Coordinating with relevant government departments to maintain fair pricing and stable quality of agricultural inputs.

    
    

• Permanent Secretary U Khant Zaw reported on the implementation of previous resolutions.

  
  

  The association’s chairman presented an analysis of international supply-demand conditions and price trends, while the Union Minister is leading coordination efforts with the Central Bank, the Rice Federation, and other stakeholders to establish an integrated response mechanism.

Conclusion

Overall, the global fertilizer market is undergoing a chain reaction of supply-demand restructuring, price transmission, and policy responses. India’s import challenges and Vietnam’s rising demand highlight the rigid dependence of emerging markets on fertilizer access. Meanwhile, the UK’s tariff policy and Myanmar’s licensing controls reflect divergent national strategies for securing supply chains.

As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to affect natural gas supply, and expectations of production cuts in major exporting countries intensify, price pressures and regional trade realignments in the fertilizer sector are likely to persist. As a result, countries are expected to increase focus on input diversification and strategic inventory reserves to enhance agricultural resilience.

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.