From the beginning of the year until now, the domestic ammonium sulfate market has been fluctuating between 650-880 rmb/t, remaining overall at a low level with limited fluctuations. After a surge following the Spring Festival, the market entered a downward trend and rebounded in April. The concentrated replenishment before May pushed the market to rise again to the level of mid-March. Looking back at the market in the past half-year, the rise in ammonium sulfate prices is attributed to several factors:
Firstly, optimistic outlooks prompting bottom fishing and hoarding, driving the market up;
Secondly, pressure from exports nearing delivery dates leading to concentrated replenishment and a significant increase in market prices;
Thirdly, periodic procurement by rare earth manufacturers fostering high prices. Currently, as May approaches its end, the market's upward momentum is clearly insufficient, mainly due to the persistent weakness of the international market.
From the perspective of the international market, although prices have risen slightly in the past month, they still remain low overall, with a difference of about one hundred rmb from the highs after the Spring Festival. The international urea market is weak, and there is no apparent improvement in the international ammonium sulfate market in the short term. Therefore, export manufacturers have weak operational intentions, and low-level demand-driven replenishment remains the main trend in the near term.
Current demand for compound fertilizers is gradually entering the off-season, and rare earth demand has also significantly declined. Therefore, the future trend of the ammonium sulfate market still needs to focus on exports. According to customs data, in April 2024, exports of ammonium sulfate totaled 930,300 tons, with an average export price of $150.05 per ton, a decrease of 25.65% compared to the previous month and an increase of 9.59% year-on-year. From January to April, ammonium sulfate exports totaled 4,027,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. Under the suppression of the low international market, the price difference between domestic and foreign trade is limited, so China's ammonium sulfate exports in April significantly decreased. However, as shown in the graph below, after May, with the gradual increase in demand in the Brazilian market, the export volume of ammonium sulfate is expected to increase steadily, so there is still a high probability of monthly increases in export volume after May this year.
In conclusion, although domestic market demand is gradually shrinking, the prospect of exports remains promising. Therefore, as international market demand continues to be released, there are still opportunities for price exploration in the domestic ammonium sulfate market. However, there is still a lack of short-term driving force, and the upward trend is limited.
