Briefing on China’s Fertilizer Import and Export (January–July 2025) and Market Summary

I. Overview of China’s Fertilizer Import and Export Data

(1) Export Data

1. Monthly Export (July):

   
   

   Total fertilizer export reached 5.70 million tons, with major product details as follows:

   
   

   • Urea: 0.57 million tons

     
     

   • Ammonium Sulfate: 2.204 million tons

     
     

   • Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): 0.98 million tons

     
     

   • Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): 0.34 million tons

     
     

2. Cumulative Export (January–July):

   
   

   • Total: 22.83 million tons, up 45.7% year-on-year (YoY); total export value USD 6.151 billion, up 49.3% YoY.

     
     

   • Major Products:

     
     

     • Urea: 0.64 million tons, a sharp increase of 195.9% YoY

       
       

     • Ammonium Sulfate: 11.045 million tons, up 39% YoY

       
       

     • Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): 1.58 million tons, down 21.7% YoY

       
       

     • Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP): 0.60 million tons, down 49.4% YoY

       
       

(2) Import Data

1. Monthly Import (July):

   
   

   Total fertilizer import reached 0.68 million tons, with major product details as follows:

   
   

   • Potassium Chloride (MOP): 0.53 million tons

     
     

   • NPK Compound Fertilizer: 0.13 million tons

     
     

2. Cumulative Import (January–July):

   
   

   • Major Products:

     
     

     • Potassium Chloride: 6.81 million tons, down 4.7% YoY

       
       

     • NPK Compound Fertilizer: 0.68 million tons, down 6.3% YoY

       
       

   • Nutrient Conversion: The combined nutrient content (pure N-P-K) from imported potassium chloride and NPK compound fertilizer amounted to 4.412 million tons.

II. China’s Fertilizer Market Trends

Urea Market: Recovery Amid Volatility, Short-Term Boost from International Tender

1. Current Situation in China:

   
   

   Prices: In major production regions such as Shandong, Henan, and Hebei, ex-factory prices of small-granule urea are concentrated in the RMB 1,660–1,700/ton range, showing stable to slightly higher adjustments.

   
   

   Supply & Demand: 

   
   

   Daily output is 195,900 tons (+12.3% YoY), with operating rates at 82.99% (high level, supply pressure persists). Inventories are higher than the same period last year. Demand remains weak (agricultural top-dressing demand is insufficient; compound fertilizer producers are cautious in procurement).

   
   

2. Key Influencing Factors:

   
   

   International Driver: India’s NFL issued a 2-million-ton urea import tender on August 15, which stimulated a slight rise in China’s urea futures. However, uncertainties remain regarding the actual tender volume and price outcomes.

   
   

Potash Market: Tight Potassium Chloride Supply Lifts Prices, Potassium Sulfate Sales Under Pressure

1. Potassium Chloride (MOP) Market:

   
   

   Prices: Domestic 60% MOP delivered prices stand at RMB 3,100–3,250/ton, reflecting a “dual pricing system with high trader quotations.”

   
   

   Supply & Demand:

   
   

   • Supply Side: Port inventories continue to decline with no new shipment schedules; domestic production capacity release is limited, and the short-term supply gap is difficult to resolve.

     
     

   • Demand Side: Compound fertilizer plants are gradually increasing operating rates. Large enterprises have already secured low-priced raw materials, while small and medium-sized plants show limited acceptance of high-priced products, leading to generally average transactions.

     
     

   Conclusion: In the short term, the market is expected to remain “high-priced and cautious,” with the supply-demand imbalance difficult to ease, and prices likely to stay at high fluctuation levels.

   
   

2. Potassium Sulfate (SOP) Market:

   
   

   Mannheim Process: Ex-factory price of 52% powder SOP is RMB 3,850–4,000/ton. Difficulties in MOP procurement push costs higher, with some enterprises facing negative margins. Operating rates continue to decline.

   
   

   Resource-Based SOP: Major producer SDIC Luobupo Potash is expected to gradually resume production in September, but short-term supply remains insufficient. Delivered prices for 52% powder SOP are RMB 3,600–3,750/ton.

   
   

   Conclusion: The overall trend remains subdued, with supply-demand contradictions prominent and no significant short-term improvement expected.

III. International Fertilizer Market Developments

(1) India: Urea Import Tender Disturbing the Market

• On August 15, India’s NFL launched a new round of urea import tender totaling 2 million tons (bid closing on September 2, latest shipment by October 30).

  
  

• The large-scale tender provided psychological support to the Asian market and pushed Chinese urea futures upward.

  
  

• However, uncertainties remain regarding the actual awarded volumes and prices, while fluctuations in international natural gas prices could further affect import costs.

  
  

(2) Vietnam: Q3 Imports Expected to Slow, H1 Imports Surged

• Import Trend: Imports are expected to slow in Q3 due to:

  
  

  • Strong arrivals in H1;

  
  

  • Sluggish domestic sales;

    
    

  • A 5% VAT imposed on all fertilizers from July 1, which led importers to accelerate shipments in Q2 to avoid the tax.

    
    

• Import Preferences: Rising demand for small 10-kg bags of DAP and urea from China (more competitive than bulk cargo and easier to transport).

  
  

• Import Data (Jan–mid-Jul 2025):

  
  

  • Diammonium Phosphate (DAP): 291,800 tons (vs. 283,300 tons in the same period of 2024, a slight increase).

    
    

  • Urea: 220,400 tons (vs. 193,700 tons in 2024, up YoY).

    
    

  • Potassium Chloride (MOP) / Ammonium Sulfate: both rose from 659,100 tons to 765,500 tons, up YoY.

    
    

• Future Demand: With the main application season ending in early August, farmers are not expected to return to the market until October. China’s suspension of small-package fertilizer exports, combined with high inventories, is likely to further suppress Q3 import demand.

  
  

Summary and Outlook

• China’s Exports: From January to July, exports grew significantly, especially for urea and ammonium sulfate; however, MAP and DAP exports declined sharply.

  
  

• Urea Market: Short-term support from India’s tender is evident, but in the long run, the market remains constrained by high inventories and weak demand.

  
  

• Potash Market: Supply tightness and policy intervention coexist, keeping prices at high and volatile levels, with structural contradictions persisting.

  
  

• Vietnam Market: Due to tax policy adjustments and front-loaded imports, Q3 imports are expected to slow, with high inventories further suppressing new orders.

  
  

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.