Global Fertilizer Market Updates: Uralkali Announces Mine Maintenance; India’s Fertilizer Imports Double in January; Nutrien Warns of Tighter Global Potash Supply in 2025; Potash Prices Surge in China

Uralkali Announces Mine Maintenance, Short-Term Supply Affected

Russian potash producer Uralkali has announced maintenance for its Berezniki-4 and Solikamsk-3 mines in Q2 and Q3 of 2024, reducing Q2 production by at least 300,000 tons. Q3 output will depend on maintenance progress.

Due to growing domestic demand, Uralkali plans to increase local supply by 400,000 tons, prioritizing NPK fertilizer producers and farmers. The company’s export orders for H1 2025 are nearly full due to strong global demand.

Uralkali operates five mines and seven processing plants in the Perm region, making it one of the world’s leading potash producers.

India’s Fertilizer Imports Double in January, Sales Surge

To prevent shortages, India doubled its fertilizer imports to 1.231 million tons in January, avoiding a repeat of 2024’s phosphate fertilizer (DAP) shortages.

Official import data:

• Urea: 554,000 tons (+53% YoY)

• DAP: 227,000 tons (+415% YoY)

• Potash (MOP): 219,000 tons (+51% YoY)

• Compound fertilizers: 231,000 tons (+267% YoY)

Experts believe the government learned from past shortages and suggest early subsidy announcements to sustain imports.

April–January sales data:

• Urea: +8.9% (34.585 million tons)

• Potash: +34.4%

• Compound fertilizers: +27.9%

• DAP: -12.4% (declined)

Farmers are stockpiling fertilizers ahead of the planting season, with urea sales exceeding demand forecasts by 50%.

Nutrien Warns of Tighter Global Potash Supply in 2025

On February 19, Canada’s potash giant Nutrien released its 2024 financial report, forecasting a tightening global potash supply in 2025 due to limited capacity growth, operational challenges, and maintenance work. U.S. tariffs and global supply uncertainties add to the risks.

Financial Highlights:

• Q4 2024 Net Income: $118 million (-33% YoY)

• 2024 Full-Year Net Income: $700 million (-45% YoY)

• Potash EBITDA: $1.8 billion (lower prices offset volume growth)

• 2024 Potash Sales: 13.89 million tons (+5% YoY)

  • International Sales: +10%

  • North America Sales: -3.5%

• Q4 Potash Sales: -16.5% YoY

  • North America: -34% YoY (short fall application window)

2025 Market Outlook:

CEO Ken Seitz expects strong agricultural demand to support potash sales:

• North America: Corn planting area to increase to 91–93 million acres, with strong H1 2025 fertilizer demand.

• Brazil: Second-crop corn acreage to grow 5%, boosting potash demand.

• Australia: Weaker AUD + strong grain & oilseed exports to support farm inputs.

Potash Prices Surge Amid Supply-Demand Imbalance

China’s potash prices jumped by 400 yuan/ton after the Lunar New Year, driven by global production cuts, domestic plant shutdowns, and peak spring demand.

Potash Price Increases (as of Feb 20):

• 60% Domestic MOP: 2,800 yuan/ton (pre-holiday: 2,550 yuan/ton)

• 62% Imported MOP: 3,030 yuan/ton (pre-holiday: 2,650 yuan/ton)

• 60% Granular Red MOP: 3,250 yuan/ton (pre-holiday: 2,700 yuan/ton)

Supply-Demand Imbalance Factors:

1. Tight Imports: Port stocks remain low at 3 million tons, with traders reluctant to sell.

2. Domestic Production Cuts: Most Chinese producers won’t resume production until March.

3. Global Supply Disruptions: Uralkali’s Q2-Q3 production cut (300,000+ tons) is fueling market concerns.

Market Outlook:

• Short-term prices will remain high due to supply constraints and rising global offers.

• China’s 2025 long-term potash import contract price could increase to $350/ton (~2,900–3,000 yuan/ton), significantly higher than 2024’s $273/ton. Government intervention may follow.

Attention: The above information is for commercial reference only due to the diversity of information collected, and Kelewell is not responsible for the authenticity of the data.